Football · Japan J2-League · 14/11, 06:00

Prediction: Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Team pages: Albirex Niigata · Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Albirex Niigata1.41

Tegevajaro Miyazaki1.32

1X2

38% 28% 34%

Albirex Niigata Draw Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Albirex Niigata 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWWLWW

Tegevajaro Miyazaki 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWWWWW

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tegevajaro Miyazaki (rating 1530 vs 1572).
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Albirex Niigata	Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.1	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.97

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.61 → 3.61	Pinn 3.61
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.40
2	2.04 → 2.04	Pinn 2.04

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:43 +344’	3.61	3.40	2.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Japan J2-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Albirex Niigata	16	10	2	4	23	24	32
2	Yokohama FC	16	9	4	3	32	17	31
3	Kataller Toyama	16	9	4	3	29	15	31
4	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	16	8	5	3	26	17	29
5	Omiya Ardija	15	7	6	2	27	18	27
6	Vegalta Sendai	15	8	3	4	23	14	27
7	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	16	8	2	6	22	19	26
8	Iwaki FC	16	7	2	7	26	22	23
9	Oita	16	5	7	4	19	14	22
10	Jubilo Iwata	15	6	4	5	18	16	22
11	Shonan Bellmare	15	5	7	3	15	14	22
12	Blaublitz Akita	16	5	5	6	18	18	20
13	Sagan Tosu	16	6	2	8	16	19	20
14	Montedio Yamagata	16	6	1	9	14	16	19
15	Tokushima Vortis	16	5	2	9	12	17	17
16	Fujieda MYFC	16	3	7	6	17	21	16
17	Vanraure Hachinohe	16	4	2	10	11	26	14
18	Tochigi City	15	3	3	9	21	28	12
19	FC Imabari	16	3	3	10	16	32	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	15	3	3	9	11	29	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Albirex Niigata	Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Kataller Toyama	2-3 L	1-1 D
Oita	1-5 L	2-0 W
Tokushima Vortis	2-1 W	2-1 W
Blaublitz Akita	2-2 D	2-1 W
Jubilo Iwata	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tegevajaro Miyazaki (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Albirex Niigata

WDWDLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FC Imabari Japan J2-League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
03/11	Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
31/10	Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
25/10	Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
21/10	Sagan Tosu Japan J2-League	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
17/10	Oita Japan J2-League	1-2	1-5	6	0	L
11/10	Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
03/10	Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League	2-1	2-1	3	1	W
26/09	Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
19/09	Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League	1-0	2-1	0	3	W

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

WWDDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
03/11	Tochigi City Japan J2-League	2-0	3-0	8	1	W
31/10	Oita Japan J2-League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
25/10	Montedio Yamagata Japan J2-League	2-0	2-0	4	2	W
21/10	Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League	0-0	2-1	7	8	W
17/10	Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
11/10	Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
04/10	Omiya Ardija Japan J2-League	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
26/09	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League	2-0	3-2	4	0	W
18/09	Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League	1-0	3-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Albirex Niigata win (38%). Probabilities: Albirex Niigata 38%, draw 28%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 34%.

How many goals are expected in Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Albirex Niigata 1.41 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.32), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.