Football · Japan J2-League · 08/08, 12:00
Prediction: Oita vs Shonan Bellmare
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Oita1.1
Shonan Bellmare1.23
1X2
Oita
Draw
Shonan Bellmare
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Oita
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Shonan Bellmare
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Oita
3–1–2
Shonan Bellmare
(6 last)
- Oita2-0Shonan Bellmare
- Shonan Bellmare2-0Oita
- Shonan Bellmare1-2Oita
- Oita2-2Shonan Bellmare
- Shonan Bellmare1-0Oita
- Oita2-1Shonan Bellmare
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Oita 1495 · Shonan Bellmare 1436
| Oita | Draw | Shonan Bellmare | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| Market | 31% | 30% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oita (rating 1495 vs 1436).
- H2H favours Oita: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Oita | Shonan Bellmare | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.8 | 1.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Oita 3–1–2 Shonan Bellmare
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/21 Japan J-League | Oita | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Shonan Bellmare |
| 09/05/21 Japan J-League | Shonan Bellmare | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Oita |
| 16/12/20 Japan J-League | Shonan Bellmare | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Oita |
| 09/09/20 Japan J-League | Oita | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Shonan Bellmare |
| 16/02/20 Japan J-League Cup | Shonan Bellmare | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Oita |
| 14/09/19 Japan J-League | Oita | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Shonan Bellmare |
Standings · Japan J2-League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Blaublitz Akita | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Imabari | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fujieda MYFC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Iwaki FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Jubilo Iwata | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kataller Toyama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Montedio Yamagata | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Oita | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Omiya Ardija | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sagan Tosu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Shonan Bellmare | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tochigi City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tokushima Vortis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ventforet Kofu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Yokohama FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Oita | Shonan Bellmare |
|---|---|---|
| Montedio Yamagata | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Sagan Tosu | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Oita (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Oita
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Nara Club Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
3-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 24/05 | Gainare Tottori Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Sagan Tosu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/05 | Kagoshima United Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/04 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | FC Ryukyu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Reilac Shiga Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Shonan Bellmare
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Sagan Tosu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Iwaki FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Yokohama FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Tochigi City Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 29/04 | Tochigi SC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Sagamihara Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Thespa Gunma Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Oita vs Shonan Bellmare?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Shonan Bellmare win (38%). Probabilities: Oita 31%, draw 31%, Shonan Bellmare 38%.
How many goals are expected in Oita vs Shonan Bellmare?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Oita 1.1 · Shonan Bellmare 1.23), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Oita vs Shonan Bellmare?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.