Prediction: AC Connecticut vs Western Mass Pioneers
Expected goals: 3.35 (AC Connecticut 1.01 · Western Mass Pioneers 2.34). The model gives 14% home, 19% draw, 67% away. Under 3.5 goals (54%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-2.
Recent form leaves AC Connecticut with 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses over 10 games; Western Mass Pioneers has piled up 5-3-2 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, AC Connecticut won 0 and Western Mass Pioneers 6.
| AC Connecticut | Draw | Western Mass Pioneers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| Market | 15% | 18% | 67% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Western Mass Pioneers (rating 1436 vs 1547).
- H2H favours Western Mass Pioneers: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AC Connecticut | Western Mass Pioneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.2 | 3.1 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Connecticut 0–0–6 Western Mass Pioneers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 1-0 HT 1-0 | AC Connecticut |
| 11/06/25 USA USL League Two | AC Connecticut | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Western Mass Pioneers |
| 10/07/24 USA USL League Two | AC Connecticut | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Western Mass Pioneers |
| 12/06/24 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 5-0 HT 2-0 | AC Connecticut |
| 16/07/23 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 5-1 HT 3-0 | AC Connecticut |
| 11/06/23 USA USL League Two | AC Connecticut | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Western Mass Pioneers |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Northeast Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont Green | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 54 | 8 | 34 |
| 2 | New England FC | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 30 |
| 3 | Western Mass Pioneers | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | Black Rock FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 18 |
| 5 | Albany Rush | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 32 | 19 |
| 6 | Seacoast United Phantoms | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 13 |
| 7 | Connecticut Rush | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 14 |
| 8 | Boston Bolts | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 11 |
| 9 | AC Connecticut | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 6 |
| 10 | Boston City FC | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 45 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AC Connecticut | Western Mass Pioneers |
|---|---|---|
| Connecticut Rush | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Black Rock FC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Albany Rush | 0-1 L | 3-4 L |
| Boston Bolts | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Boston City FC | 4-0 W | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AC Connecticut
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
Western Mass Pioneers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 01/07 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 24/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/06 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 5-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 04/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AC Connecticut vs Western Mass Pioneers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Western Mass Pioneers win (67%). Probabilities: AC Connecticut 14%, draw 19%, Western Mass Pioneers 67%.
How many goals are expected in AC Connecticut vs Western Mass Pioneers?
The model expects 3.35 goals (AC Connecticut 1.01 · Western Mass Pioneers 2.34), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in AC Connecticut vs Western Mass Pioneers?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.