Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Smederevo vs FK Graficar Beograd

Team pages: Smederevo · FK Graficar Beograd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Smederevo1.73

FK Graficar Beograd0.91

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Smederevo Draw FK Graficar Beograd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Smederevo 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLDLL

FK Graficar Beograd 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLDLLW

Head-to-head

Smederevo 2–2–2 FK Graficar Beograd (6 last)

FK Graficar Beograd1-2Smederevo
FK Graficar Beograd0-1Smederevo
FK Graficar Beograd0-0Smederevo
Smederevo0-1FK Graficar Beograd
Smederevo1-1FK Graficar Beograd
FK Graficar Beograd2-0Smederevo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Smederevo 1493 · FK Graficar Beograd 1461

	Smederevo	Draw	FK Graficar Beograd
Our model	55%	26%	19%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Smederevo	FK Graficar Beograd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.5	1.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.80

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.74 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +23’	1.57	3.80	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:58 +2’	1.72	3.41	4.08
11:02 +11’	1.74▲	3.46▲	4.16▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Smederevo 2–2–2 FK Graficar Beograd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Graficar Beograd	1-2 HT 0-0	Smederevo
21/04/26 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Graficar Beograd	0-1 HT 0-0	Smederevo
13/12/25 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Graficar Beograd	0-0 HT 0-0	Smederevo
06/09/25 Serbia Prva Liga	Smederevo	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Graficar Beograd
14/12/24 Serbia Prva Liga	Smederevo	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Graficar Beograd
01/09/24 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Graficar Beograd	2-0 HT 1-0	Smederevo

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Javor Ivanjica	16	9	6	1	38	18	33
2	FK Backa Topola	16	9	6	1	36	18	33
3	Borac Cacak	16	10	3	3	29	20	33
4	OFK Vrsac	16	9	2	5	20	15	29
5	Smederevo	16	7	4	5	22	18	25
6	FK Dubocica	16	6	5	5	16	17	23
7	Spartak Subotica	16	6	4	6	25	28	22
8	FK Napredak	16	6	4	6	14	17	22
9	FK Proleter 023	16	5	6	5	23	17	21
10	FK Vozdovac	16	5	5	6	15	14	20
11	Loznica	16	4	8	4	19	22	20
12	Metalac Gornji	16	5	3	8	19	25	18
13	Jedinstvo UB	16	5	2	9	20	26	17
14	FK Graficar Beograd	16	4	2	10	20	29	14
15	Teleoptik	16	3	4	9	20	29	13
16	Bor 1919	16	2	2	12	8	31	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Smederevo	FK Graficar Beograd
Borac Cacak	0-2 L	1-2 L
OFK Vrsac	1-0 W	1-4 L
FK Napredak	4-1 W	2-0 W
Spartak Subotica	2-1 W	0-2 L
Jedinstvo UB	1-2 L	1-3 L
Javor Ivanjica	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Smederevo (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Smederevo

LLWWWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	1	5	L
23/10	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
17/10	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/10	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
05/10	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
26/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
21/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
16/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
12/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
05/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-3	7	3	L

FK Graficar Beograd

LLWLWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
24/10	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
17/10	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
11/10	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
05/10	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	1-4	4	7	L
28/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	3-1	4-1	5	2	W
21/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
17/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
12/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-4	1-4	2	4	L
05/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Smederevo vs FK Graficar Beograd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Smederevo win (56%). Probabilities: Smederevo 56%, draw 25%, FK Graficar Beograd 19%.

How many goals are expected in Smederevo vs FK Graficar Beograd?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Smederevo 1.73 · FK Graficar Beograd 0.91), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Smederevo vs FK Graficar Beograd?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.