Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 15/11, 16:00

Prediction: FK Backa Topola vs Jedinstvo UB

Team pages: FK Backa Topola · Jedinstvo UB

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.84Total

FK Backa Topola2.81

Jedinstvo UB1.03

1X2

74% 16% 11%

FK Backa Topola Draw Jedinstvo UB

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Backa Topola 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDWWWWLD

Jedinstvo UB 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLWWWD

Head-to-head

FK Backa Topola 2–1 Jedinstvo UB (3 last)

Jedinstvo UB2-3FK Backa Topola
Jedinstvo UB4-1FK Backa Topola
FK Backa Topola2-0Jedinstvo UB

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Backa Topola 1581 · Jedinstvo UB 1476

	FK Backa Topola	Draw	Jedinstvo UB
Our model	74%	16%	10%
Market	74%	16%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Backa Topola (rating 1581 vs 1476).
H2H favours FK Backa Topola: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Backa Topola	Jedinstvo UB
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.8	1.2 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.75

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.98

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +4’	1.22	5.75	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Backa Topola 2–0–1 Jedinstvo UB

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Serbia Prva Liga	Jedinstvo UB	2-3 HT 0-2	FK Backa Topola
03/03/25 Serbia Super Liga	Jedinstvo UB	4-1 HT 2-0	FK Backa Topola
06/10/24 Serbia Super Liga	FK Backa Topola	2-0 HT 0-0	Jedinstvo UB

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	17	11	3	3	30	20	36
2	Javor Ivanjica	17	9	7	1	40	20	34
3	FK Backa Topola	17	9	7	1	38	20	34
4	OFK Vrsac	17	9	3	5	21	16	30
5	FK Dubocica	17	7	5	5	18	18	26
6	Smederevo	17	7	4	6	23	23	25
7	FK Napredak	17	7	4	6	16	17	25
8	Spartak Subotica	17	6	5	6	26	29	23
9	FK Proleter 023	17	5	7	5	24	18	22
10	FK Vozdovac	17	5	5	7	15	15	20
11	Loznica	17	4	8	5	20	24	20
12	Metalac Gornji	17	5	4	8	20	26	19
13	Jedinstvo UB	17	5	3	9	21	27	18
14	FK Graficar Beograd	17	5	2	10	25	30	17
15	Teleoptik	17	3	5	9	21	30	14
16	Bor 1919	17	2	2	13	8	33	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Backa Topola	Jedinstvo UB
Teleoptik	2-1 W	1-1 D
Metalac Gornji	5-1 W	3-1 W
Bor 1919	4-1 W	2-0 W
FK Graficar Beograd	4-1 W	3-1 W
Borac Cacak	2-2 D	1-3 L
FK Dubocica	0-0 D	0-0 D
FK Proleter 023	1-1 D	0-3 L
Loznica	4-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Backa Topola (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Backa Topola

WDDDWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
01/11	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	8	10	L
23/10	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
17/10	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	5-1	3	4	W
11/10	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	4-1	4	3	W
05/10	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	4-1	4	7	W
26/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
21/09	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
16/09	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
12/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	4-0	9	6	W

Jedinstvo UB

WLLLDLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
02/11	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	3-1	2	7	W
24/10	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
17/10	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
10/10	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-3	1	3	L
04/10	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
28/09	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	2	8	L
21/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
16/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
12/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Backa Topola vs Jedinstvo UB?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Backa Topola win (74%). Probabilities: FK Backa Topola 74%, draw 16%, Jedinstvo UB 11%.

How many goals are expected in FK Backa Topola vs Jedinstvo UB?

The model expects 3.84 goals (FK Backa Topola 2.81 · Jedinstvo UB 1.03), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Backa Topola vs Jedinstvo UB?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.