Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 15/11, 16:00

Prediction: Metalac Gornji vs FK Napredak

Team pages: Metalac Gornji · FK Napredak

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Metalac Gornji1.2

FK Napredak1.16

1X2

37% 29% 34%

Metalac Gornji Draw FK Napredak

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Metalac Gornji 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLLLLD

FK Napredak 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDWDLW

Head-to-head

Metalac Gornji 1–1–4 FK Napredak (6 last)

FK Napredak2-1Metalac Gornji
FK Napredak1-0Metalac Gornji
Metalac Gornji2-3FK Napredak
Metalac Gornji2-2FK Napredak
FK Napredak1-2Metalac Gornji
FK Napredak2-0Metalac Gornji

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metalac Gornji 1479 · FK Napredak 1482

	Metalac Gornji	Draw	FK Napredak
Our model	36%	31%	34%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Napredak: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metalac Gornji	FK Napredak
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	0.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.25

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:04 +5’	2.40	3.25	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Metalac Gornji 1–1–4 FK Napredak

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/08/26 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Napredak	2-1 HT 0-1	Metalac Gornji
11/04/22 Serbia Super Liga	FK Napredak	1-0 HT 0-0	Metalac Gornji
02/11/21 Serbia Super Liga	Metalac Gornji	2-3 HT 1-3	FK Napredak
19/03/21 Serbia Super Liga	Metalac Gornji	2-2 HT 1-1	FK Napredak
27/09/20 Serbia Super Liga	FK Napredak	1-2 HT 0-1	Metalac Gornji
17/10/18 Serbia Cup	FK Napredak	2-0 HT 1-0	Metalac Gornji

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	17	11	3	3	30	20	36
2	Javor Ivanjica	17	9	7	1	40	20	34
3	FK Backa Topola	17	9	7	1	38	20	34
4	OFK Vrsac	17	9	3	5	21	16	30
5	FK Dubocica	17	7	5	5	18	18	26
6	Smederevo	17	7	4	6	23	23	25
7	FK Napredak	17	7	4	6	16	17	25
8	Spartak Subotica	17	6	5	6	26	29	23
9	FK Proleter 023	17	5	7	5	24	18	22
10	FK Vozdovac	17	5	5	7	15	15	20
11	Loznica	17	4	8	5	20	24	20
12	Metalac Gornji	17	5	4	8	20	26	19
13	Jedinstvo UB	17	5	3	9	21	27	18
14	FK Graficar Beograd	17	5	2	10	25	30	17
15	Teleoptik	17	3	5	9	21	30	14
16	Bor 1919	17	2	2	13	8	33	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metalac Gornji	FK Napredak
Spartak Subotica	1-1 D	0-1 L
OFK Vrsac	0-0 D	1-2 L
Bor 1919	2-0 W	2-0 W
FK Graficar Beograd	1-0 W	0-2 L
Borac Cacak	2-1 W	0-0 D
FK Dubocica	5-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Metalac Gornji (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metalac Gornji

WWWWDLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
02/11	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-3	11	7	L
24/10	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
17/10	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	1-5	7	4	L
10/10	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	12	3	L
04/10	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
28/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
21/09	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
11/09	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	3-0	5-0	3	5	W

FK Napredak

LLLDWDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
02/11	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
24/10	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
17/10	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
11/10	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
05/10	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
29/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
21/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	1-4	6	7	L
16/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
11/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metalac Gornji vs FK Napredak?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metalac Gornji win (37%). Probabilities: Metalac Gornji 37%, draw 29%, FK Napredak 34%.

How many goals are expected in Metalac Gornji vs FK Napredak?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Metalac Gornji 1.2 · FK Napredak 1.16), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Metalac Gornji vs FK Napredak?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.