Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 16/11, 13:00

Prediction: Bor 1919 vs Smederevo

Team pages: Bor 1919 · Smederevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Bor 19191.15

Smederevo1.48

1X2

29% 26% 44%

Bor 1919 Draw Smederevo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Bor 1919 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Smederevo 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLDLLL

Head-to-head

Bor 1919 0–1 Smederevo (1 last)

Smederevo4-1Bor 1919

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bor 1919 1368 · Smederevo 1473

	Bor 1919	Draw	Smederevo
Our model	28%	28%	43%
Market	30%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Smederevo (rating 1368 vs 1473).
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bor 1919	Smederevo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.1 / 2.1	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/10/90%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	5.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:36 +34’	3.00	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bor 1919 0–0–1 Smederevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Serbia Prva Liga	Smederevo	4-1 HT 4-0	Bor 1919

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	18	11	4	3	31	21	37
2	Javor Ivanjica	17	9	7	1	40	20	34
3	FK Backa Topola	17	9	7	1	38	20	34
4	OFK Vrsac	17	9	3	5	21	16	30
5	FK Dubocica	18	7	5	6	19	22	26
6	FK Proleter 023	18	6	7	5	28	19	25
7	Smederevo	17	7	4	6	23	23	25
8	FK Napredak	17	7	4	6	16	17	25
9	Spartak Subotica	18	6	5	7	26	31	23
10	Loznica	18	4	9	5	21	25	21
11	FK Vozdovac	17	5	5	7	15	15	20
12	Metalac Gornji	17	5	4	8	20	26	19
13	Jedinstvo UB	17	5	3	9	21	27	18
14	FK Graficar Beograd	17	5	2	10	25	30	17
15	Teleoptik	18	4	5	9	23	30	17
16	Bor 1919	17	2	2	13	8	33	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bor 1919	Smederevo
FK Napredak	0-2 L	4-1 W
Spartak Subotica	0-1 L	2-1 W
Jedinstvo UB	0-2 L	1-2 L
OFK Vrsac	0-1 L	1-0 W
FK Graficar Beograd	0-3 L	1-5 L
Borac Cacak	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Smederevo (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bor 1919

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
02/11	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
24/10	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
17/10	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
11/10	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-4	3	3	L
03/10	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
28/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
21/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
17/09	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
13/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	1	4	L

Smederevo

LWWWWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	1-3	1-5	2	4	L
01/11	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	1	5	L
23/10	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
17/10	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/10	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
05/10	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
26/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
21/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
16/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
12/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bor 1919 vs Smederevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Smederevo win (44%). Probabilities: Bor 1919 29%, draw 26%, Smederevo 44%.

How many goals are expected in Bor 1919 vs Smederevo?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Bor 1919 1.15 · Smederevo 1.48), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bor 1919 vs Smederevo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.