Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 08/11, 16:00

Prediction: Spartak Subotica vs Metalac Gornji

Team pages: Spartak Subotica · Metalac Gornji

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Spartak Subotica1.91

Metalac Gornji1.07

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Spartak Subotica Draw Metalac Gornji

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Spartak Subotica 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLDWW

Metalac Gornji 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Spartak Subotica 3–1–2 Metalac Gornji (6 last)

Metalac Gornji2-4Spartak Subotica
Metalac Gornji1-1Spartak Subotica
Metalac Gornji2-0Spartak Subotica
Spartak Subotica2-0Metalac Gornji
Metalac Gornji3-0Spartak Subotica
Spartak Subotica4-1Metalac Gornji

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spartak Subotica 1498 · Metalac Gornji 1469

	Spartak Subotica	Draw	Metalac Gornji
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	56%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Spartak Subotica: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spartak Subotica	Metalac Gornji
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	2.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:54 +6’	1.60	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartak Subotica 3–1–2 Metalac Gornji

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Serbia Prva Liga	Metalac Gornji	2-4 HT 0-2	Spartak Subotica
21/04/22 Serbia Super Liga	Metalac Gornji	1-1 HT 1-1	Spartak Subotica
02/04/22 Serbia Super Liga	Metalac Gornji	2-0 HT 1-0	Spartak Subotica
23/10/21 Serbia Super Liga	Spartak Subotica	2-0 HT 1-0	Metalac Gornji
17/02/21 Serbia Super Liga	Metalac Gornji	3-0 HT 1-0	Spartak Subotica
09/08/20 Serbia Super Liga	Spartak Subotica	4-1 HT 0-1	Metalac Gornji

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Javor Ivanjica	16	9	6	1	38	18	33
2	FK Backa Topola	16	9	6	1	36	18	33
3	Borac Cacak	16	10	3	3	29	20	33
4	OFK Vrsac	16	9	2	5	20	15	29
5	Smederevo	16	7	4	5	22	18	25
6	FK Dubocica	16	6	5	5	16	17	23
7	Spartak Subotica	16	6	4	6	25	28	22
8	FK Napredak	16	6	4	6	14	17	22
9	FK Proleter 023	16	5	6	5	23	17	21
10	FK Vozdovac	16	5	5	6	15	14	20
11	Loznica	16	4	8	4	19	22	20
12	Metalac Gornji	16	5	3	8	19	25	18
13	Jedinstvo UB	16	5	2	9	20	26	17
14	FK Graficar Beograd	16	4	2	10	20	29	14
15	Teleoptik	16	3	4	9	20	29	13
16	Bor 1919	16	2	2	12	8	31	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spartak Subotica	Metalac Gornji
Bor 1919	1-0 W	2-0 W
FK Graficar Beograd	2-0 W	1-0 W
Borac Cacak	3-3 D	2-1 W
FK Dubocica	1-2 L	5-0 W
FK Proleter 023	0-6 L	0-0 D
OFK Vrsac	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Metalac Gornji (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spartak Subotica

WWLLLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
24/10	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
19/10	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	3-3	4	6	D
11/10	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	1	8	L
04/10	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-3	0-6	1	5	L
28/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
21/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
16/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
11/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
05/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	6	W

Metalac Gornji

DWWWWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-3	11	7	L
24/10	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
17/10	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	1-5	7	4	L
10/10	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	12	3	L
04/10	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
28/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
21/09	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
11/09	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	3-0	5-0	3	5	W
05/09	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spartak Subotica vs Metalac Gornji?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spartak Subotica win (56%). Probabilities: Spartak Subotica 56%, draw 24%, Metalac Gornji 20%.

How many goals are expected in Spartak Subotica vs Metalac Gornji?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Spartak Subotica 1.91 · Metalac Gornji 1.07), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Spartak Subotica vs Metalac Gornji?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.