Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 21/08, 20:00

Prediction: FC Emmen vs AZ Reserves

Team pages: FC Emmen · AZ Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

FC Emmen1.94

AZ Reserves1.62

1X2

44% 25% 31%

FC Emmen Draw AZ Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Emmen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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AZ Reserves 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Emmen 3–1–2 AZ Reserves (6 last)

AZ Reserves2-3FC Emmen
FC Emmen4-2AZ Reserves
FC Emmen1-4AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves1-1FC Emmen
AZ Reserves3-2FC Emmen
FC Emmen2-1AZ Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Emmen 1523 · AZ Reserves 1495

	FC Emmen	Draw	AZ Reserves
Our model	45%	24%	32%
Market	44%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Emmen: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Emmen	AZ Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.5	3.4 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +4’	2.10	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Emmen 3–1–2 AZ Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	2-3 HT 1-2	FC Emmen
28/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Emmen	4-2 HT 2-1	AZ Reserves
18/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Emmen	1-4 HT 0-1	AZ Reserves
13/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Emmen
08/04/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	3-2 HT 1-2	FC Emmen
27/10/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Emmen	2-1 HT 1-1	AZ Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
2	Maastricht	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
3	Almere City FC	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
4	FC Dordrecht	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
5	FC Emmen	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	FC Volendam	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
7	VVV	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
8	FC Eindhoven	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Roda JC	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	PSV Reserves	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
11	NAC	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
12	RKC	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
13	De Graafschap	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
13	Vitesse	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
15	FC Den Bosch	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
16	Helmond Sport	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
17	Ajax Reserves	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	FC Utrecht Reserves	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
19	AZ Reserves	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
20	Top Oss	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Emmen	AZ Reserves
Roda JC	1-0 W	2-0 W
De Graafschap	1-0 W	0-5 L
FC Eindhoven	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Emmen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
01/08	Almere City FC Europe Friendlies	2-0	4-0	11	1	W
24/07	FC Twente Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-3	2	0	L
11/07	FC Groningen Europe Friendlies	1-2	2-3	5	0	L
24/04	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	2-2	5	6	D
10/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-5	7	5	L
06/04	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
03/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	3-3	2	6	D
28/03	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	7	4	L

AZ Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
28/07	Quick Boys Europe Friendlies	0-1	4-1	6	1	W
25/07	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Europe Friendlies	0-1	3-2	9	1	W
17/07	Ajax Reserves Europe Friendlies	0-0	3-0	11	1	W
24/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	12	2	W
17/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	8	4	L
13/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
06/04	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-5	2	3	L
03/04	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
20/03	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	4-3	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Emmen vs AZ Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Emmen win (44%). Probabilities: FC Emmen 44%, draw 25%, AZ Reserves 31%.

How many goals are expected in FC Emmen vs AZ Reserves?

The model expects 3.56 goals (FC Emmen 1.94 · AZ Reserves 1.62), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Emmen vs AZ Reserves?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.