Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 21/08, 20:00

Prediction: Vitesse vs Almere City FC

Team pages: Vitesse · Almere City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Vitesse1.47

Almere City FC1.52

1X2

36% 27% 38%

Vitesse Draw Almere City FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vitesse 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

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Almere City FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Vitesse 0–2–2 Almere City FC (4 last)

Vitesse1-3Almere City FC
Almere City FC2-2Vitesse
Vitesse1-1Almere City FC
Almere City FC5-0Vitesse

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitesse 1554 · Almere City FC 1521

	Vitesse	Draw	Almere City FC
Our model	36%	27%	38%
Market	36%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Almere City FC: 2-2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vitesse	Almere City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.6	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	1.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +2’	2.55	3.40	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitesse 0–2–2 Almere City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Vitesse	1-3 HT 1-1	Almere City FC
10/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	2-2 HT 0-0	Vitesse
16/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Vitesse	1-1 HT 0-1	Almere City FC
17/12/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Almere City FC	5-0 HT 2-0	Vitesse

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
2	Maastricht	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
3	Almere City FC	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
4	FC Dordrecht	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
5	FC Emmen	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	FC Volendam	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
7	VVV	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
8	FC Eindhoven	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Roda JC	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	PSV Reserves	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
11	NAC	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
12	RKC	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
13	De Graafschap	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
13	Vitesse	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
15	FC Den Bosch	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
16	Helmond Sport	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
17	Ajax Reserves	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	FC Utrecht Reserves	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
19	AZ Reserves	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
20	Top Oss	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitesse	Almere City FC
FC Emmen	3-3 D	0-4 L
PSV Reserves	2-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vitesse (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vitesse

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
15/07	AEK Athens Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
11/07	Borussia Dortmund II Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
03/07	Roda JC Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	1	0	D
17/04	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
13/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
06/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	6-1	5	2	W
03/04	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	3-3	9	6	D
20/03	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
16/03	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	4	5	W

Almere City FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
08/08	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
01/08	FC Emmen Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-4	4	1	L
08/07	Go Ahead Eagles Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
16/05	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
13/05	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
09/05	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
06/05	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	3	0	W
02/05	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
29/04	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eredivisie Play-Offs	0-2	3-2	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitesse vs Almere City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Almere City FC win (38%). Probabilities: Vitesse 36%, draw 27%, Almere City FC 38%.

How many goals are expected in Vitesse vs Almere City FC?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Vitesse 1.47 · Almere City FC 1.52), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Almere City FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.