Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 22/08, 16:30

Prediction: NAC vs Ajax Reserves

Team pages: NAC · Ajax Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

NAC2.35

Ajax Reserves0.76

1X2

73% 18% 10%

NAC Draw Ajax Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

NAC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWWLWL

Ajax Reserves 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWLLL

Head-to-head

NAC 1–2–3 Ajax Reserves (6 last)

Ajax Reserves0-1NAC
NAC1-1Ajax Reserves
NAC2-6Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves3-1NAC
NAC0-0Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves6-3NAC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NAC 1496 · Ajax Reserves 1435

	NAC	Draw	Ajax Reserves
Our model	72%	18%	10%
Market	73%	17%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NAC (rating 1496 vs 1435).
H2H favours Ajax Reserves: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NAC	Ajax Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/0/70%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.3	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.93

2 (+1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +7’	1.27	5.50	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NAC 1–2–3 Ajax Reserves

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	0-1 HT 0-0	NAC
10/11/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	1-1 HT 0-1	Ajax Reserves
13/03/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	2-6 HT 0-4	Ajax Reserves
12/09/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	3-1 HT 0-1	NAC
01/04/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	0-0 HT 0-0	Ajax Reserves
13/09/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	6-3 HT 4-1	NAC

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
2	Maastricht	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
3	Almere City FC	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
4	FC Dordrecht	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
5	FC Emmen	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	FC Volendam	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
7	VVV	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
8	FC Eindhoven	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Roda JC	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	PSV Reserves	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
11	NAC	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
12	RKC	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
13	De Graafschap	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
13	Vitesse	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
15	FC Den Bosch	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
16	Helmond Sport	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
17	Ajax Reserves	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	FC Utrecht Reserves	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
19	AZ Reserves	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
20	Top Oss	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NAC	Ajax Reserves
VVV	0-2 L	1-0 W
Top Oss	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

NAC

WDLWLWWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	10	7	L
07/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	8	2	W
01/08	Bolton Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
28/07	OFI Crete Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
25/07	SC Lokeren-Temse Europe Friendlies	0-1	2-1	6	0	W
18/07	Excelsior Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-3	2	0	L
15/07	HSV Hoek Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-1	8	1	W
08/07	FC Eindhoven Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-2	8	0	L
17/05	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	3-3	6	2	D
11/05	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	6	1	W

Ajax Reserves

WWLLLLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
17/07	AZ Reserves Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-3	3	1	L
24/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
17/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
13/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
06/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-6	2	2	L
03/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-2	2-4	5	6	L
20/03	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
17/03	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
13/03	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	3-2	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NAC vs Ajax Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NAC win (73%). Probabilities: NAC 73%, draw 18%, Ajax Reserves 10%.

How many goals are expected in NAC vs Ajax Reserves?

The model expects 3.11 goals (NAC 2.35 · Ajax Reserves 0.76), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NAC vs Ajax Reserves?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.