Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 23/08, 16:45
Prediction: VVV vs De Graafschap
Team pages: VVV · De Graafschap
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.87Total
VVV1.86
De Graafschap2.01
1X2
VVV
Draw
De Graafschap
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
VVV
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
De Graafschap
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
VVV
2–1–3
De Graafschap
(6 last)
- VVV3-3De Graafschap
- De Graafschap3-2VVV
- VVV3-1De Graafschap
- De Graafschap3-1VVV
- De Graafschap3-0VVV
- VVV2-0De Graafschap
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · VVV 1479 · De Graafschap 1465
| VVV | Draw | De Graafschap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 23% | 42% |
| Market | 34% | 26% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours De Graafschap: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| VVV | De Graafschap | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.6 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.3 | 1.8 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · VVV 2–1–3 De Graafschap
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | VVV | 3-3 HT 0-1 | De Graafschap |
| 08/08/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | De Graafschap | 3-2 HT 2-1 | VVV |
| 28/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | VVV | 3-1 HT 0-0 | De Graafschap |
| 01/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | De Graafschap | 3-1 HT 2-0 | VVV |
| 26/01/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | De Graafschap | 3-0 HT 1-0 | VVV |
| 01/09/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | VVV | 2-0 HT 1-0 | De Graafschap |
Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Emmen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Maastricht | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Almere City FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Heracles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Roda JC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | NAC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | FC Den Bosch | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| 8 | FC Dordrecht | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | VVV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | PSV Reserves | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | FC Volendam | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | AZ Reserves | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | RKC | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | FC Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | FC Utrecht Reserves | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 | Top Oss | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 | Ajax Reserves | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | VVV | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Almere City FC | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Helmond Sport | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
VVV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 07/08 | Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Eupen Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | SC Fortuna Köln Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 18/07 | OH Leuven II Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Borussia M'gladbach II Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 17/04 | Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-1 | 3-3 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 06/04 | PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
De Graafschap
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-1 | 2-5 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 09/08 | Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Excelsior Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Kifisias FC Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/07 | AEK Athens Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 03/07 | Heerenveen Europe Friendlies |
1-4 | 2-7 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | FC Utrecht Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 06/05 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 24/04 | FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in VVV vs De Graafschap?
According to our model, the most likely result is an De Graafschap win (41%). Probabilities: VVV 35%, draw 24%, De Graafschap 41%.
How many goals are expected in VVV vs De Graafschap?
The model expects 3.87 goals (VVV 1.86 · De Graafschap 2.01), with a 59% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in VVV vs De Graafschap?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.