Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 26/09, 20:00

Prediction: Maastricht vs Helmond Sport

Team pages: Maastricht · Helmond Sport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Maastricht1.78

Helmond Sport1.14

1X2

51% 25% 23%

Maastricht Draw Helmond Sport

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Maastricht 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWWDLL

Helmond Sport 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDLDLWWL

Head-to-head

Maastricht 3–1–2 Helmond Sport (6 last)

Maastricht0-0Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport2-4Maastricht
Helmond Sport4-0Maastricht
Maastricht1-2Helmond Sport
Maastricht3-0Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport1-2Maastricht

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maastricht (rating 1501 vs 1459).
H2H favours Maastricht: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maastricht	Helmond Sport
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.5	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.97

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:12

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.92 → 1.92	Pinn 1.92
X	3.79 → 3.79	Pinn 3.79
2	3.53 → 3.53	Pinn 3.53

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:45 +268’	1.92	3.79	3.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maastricht 3–1–2 Helmond Sport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	0-0 HT 0-0	Helmond Sport
05/12/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	2-4 HT 1-1	Maastricht
07/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	4-0 HT 3-0	Maastricht
27/10/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	1-2 HT 1-1	Helmond Sport
05/04/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	3-0 HT 1-0	Helmond Sport
08/12/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	1-2 HT 1-0	Maastricht

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	7	6	0	1	24	10	18
2	Almere City FC	7	5	1	1	16	4	16
3	VVV	7	5	0	2	19	11	15
4	RKC	7	3	4	0	18	9	13
5	Vitesse	7	4	1	2	13	9	13
6	Maastricht	7	4	1	2	10	15	13
7	AZ Reserves	9	4	1	4	22	17	13
8	Roda JC	7	3	3	1	7	5	12
9	FC Emmen	7	4	0	3	17	17	12
10	PSV Reserves	9	3	3	3	14	16	12
11	FC Eindhoven	7	3	1	3	11	13	10
12	FC Volendam	7	3	0	4	17	14	9
13	Helmond Sport	7	2	2	3	13	12	8
14	Ajax Reserves	9	2	2	5	13	22	8
15	NAC	6	2	1	3	11	14	7
16	FC Den Bosch	7	2	1	4	12	16	7
17	FC Utrecht Reserves	9	2	1	6	15	21	7
18	Top Oss	7	2	0	5	8	12	6
19	De Graafschap	6	1	1	4	7	18	4
20	FC Dordrecht	7	1	1	5	9	21	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maastricht	Helmond Sport
RKC	1-6 L	1-1 D
Roda JC	1-1 D	1-2 L
FC Eindhoven	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Maastricht (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maastricht

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-6	3	2	L
11/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-4	5	2	L
06/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
28/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
21/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
14/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	2	1	W
09/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
24/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
17/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
10/04	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	1	1	D

Helmond Sport

DWLDLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
11/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
04/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-2	2	5	W
28/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-3	9	3	L
21/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
14/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
09/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
24/04	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
17/04	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
10/04	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maastricht vs Helmond Sport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maastricht win (51%). Probabilities: Maastricht 51%, draw 25%, Helmond Sport 23%.

How many goals are expected in Maastricht vs Helmond Sport?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Maastricht 1.78 · Helmond Sport 1.14), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Maastricht vs Helmond Sport?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.