Football · Costa Rica Primera Division · 15/10, 04:00
Prediction: Alajuelense vs Herediano
Team pages: Alajuelense · Herediano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Alajuelense1.5
Herediano1
1X2
Alajuelense
Draw
Herediano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Alajuelense
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Herediano
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alajuelense
2–1–3
Herediano
(6 last)
- Herediano0-3Alajuelense
- Alajuelense0-1Herediano
- Herediano2-1Alajuelense
- Alajuelense1-1Herediano
- Herediano1-3Alajuelense
- Alajuelense0-1Herediano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alajuelense 1520 · Herediano 1467
| Alajuelense | Draw | Herediano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alajuelense (rating 1520 vs 1467).
- H2H favours Herediano: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alajuelense | Herediano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7 | 2.4 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alajuelense 2–1–3 Herediano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | Herediano | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Alajuelense |
| 13/07/26 Costa Rica Super Cup | Alajuelense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Herediano |
| 22/03/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | Herediano | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Alajuelense |
| 08/02/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Herediano |
| 17/10/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Herediano | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Alajuelense |
| 11/08/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Herediano |
Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Sporting San Jose | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | Cartagines | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 18 |
| 4 | AD San Carlos | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Alajuelense | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Inter San Carlos | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 15 |
| 7 | Puntarenas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 12 |
| 8 | Municipal Perez Zeledon | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 9 |
| 9 | Herediano | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 7 |
| 10 | Escorpiones de Belen FC | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alajuelense | Herediano |
|---|---|---|
| Puntarenas | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Inter San Carlos | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Cartagines | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Saprissa | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Municipal Perez Zeledon | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| AD San Carlos | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Escorpiones de Belen FC | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Sporting San Jose | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alajuelense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 21/09 | Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 14/09 | Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 24/08 | AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/08 | Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
Herediano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 11 | L |
| 13/09 | Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 9 | L |
| 30/08 | Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/08 | Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/08 | Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 24/07 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alajuelense vs Herediano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alajuelense win (48%). Probabilities: Alajuelense 48%, draw 27%, Herediano 25%.
How many goals are expected in Alajuelense vs Herediano?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Alajuelense 1.5 · Herediano 1), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Alajuelense vs Herediano?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.