Football · Costa Rica Primera Division · 25/10, 03:00

Prediction: Herediano vs Cartagines

Team pages: Herediano · Cartagines

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Herediano1.3

Cartagines1.02

1X2

42% 29% 28%

Herediano Draw Cartagines

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Herediano 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLDW

Cartagines 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Herediano 4–1–1 Cartagines (6 last)

Cartagines1-0Herediano
Herediano0-0Cartagines
Cartagines0-1Herediano
Cartagines1-2Herediano
Herediano1-0Cartagines
Herediano2-1Cartagines

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herediano 1496 · Cartagines 1551

	Herediano	Draw	Cartagines
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	43%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cartagines (rating 1496 vs 1551).
H2H favours Herediano: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herediano	Cartagines
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.5	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.7	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	5.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.17
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.24
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.36 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:10 +7’	2.15	3.20	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +5’	2.16	3.21	3.32
01:12 +4’	2.17▲	3.24▲	3.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Herediano 4–1–1 Cartagines

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Cartagines	1-0 HT 1-0	Herediano
10/05/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Herediano	0-0 HT 0-0	Cartagines
03/05/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Cartagines	0-1 HT 0-1	Herediano
11/04/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Cartagines	1-2 HT 1-1	Herediano
15/02/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Herediano	1-0 HT 1-0	Cartagines
26/10/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	Herediano	2-1 HT 1-0	Cartagines

Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Saprissa	12	8	0	4	26	12	24
2	Cartagines	12	8	0	4	23	14	24
3	Sporting San Jose	12	6	3	3	22	18	21
4	Alajuelense	12	5	4	3	20	14	19
5	AD San Carlos	12	6	1	5	13	14	19
6	Inter San Carlos	12	5	3	4	14	17	18
7	Puntarenas	12	4	3	5	12	18	15
8	Herediano	12	3	2	7	12	16	11
9	Escorpiones de Belen FC	12	3	1	8	12	18	10
10	Municipal Perez Zeledon	12	2	3	7	9	22	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herediano	Cartagines
Alajuelense	1-1 D	3-1 W
AD San Carlos	0-1 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Saprissa	0-2 L	1-0 W
Escorpiones de Belen FC	2-0 W	4-1 W
Sporting San Jose	0-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cartagines (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herediano

LLLLLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	3-0	9	4	W
15/10	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	1-1	6	9	D
11/10	AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	11	3	L
20/09	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-2	5	11	L
13/09	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
06/09	Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	2-3	9	9	L
30/08	Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
23/08	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-3	6	1	L
15/08	AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/08	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-3	–	–	L

Cartagines

WLWWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
14/10	Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
10/10	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	1-3	8	5	L
21/09	AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
14/09	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
07/09	Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	3-1	5	8	W
30/08	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
23/08	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	4-1	9	8	W
16/08	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
08/08	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	2-1	4	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herediano vs Cartagines?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Herediano win (42%). Probabilities: Herediano 42%, draw 29%, Cartagines 28%.

How many goals are expected in Herediano vs Cartagines?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Herediano 1.3 · Cartagines 1.02), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Herediano vs Cartagines?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.