Football · Costa Rica Primera Division · 01/11, 18:00

Prediction: Cartagines vs AD San Carlos

Team pages: Cartagines · AD San Carlos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Cartagines1.73

AD San Carlos0.97

1X2

54% 26% 20%

Cartagines Draw AD San Carlos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Cartagines 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLWWL

AD San Carlos 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWLDW

Head-to-head

Cartagines 4–1–1 AD San Carlos (6 last)

AD San Carlos1-0Cartagines
Cartagines2-1AD San Carlos
AD San Carlos1-1Cartagines
Cartagines2-1AD San Carlos
AD San Carlos0-2Cartagines
AD San Carlos1-2Cartagines

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cartagines 1559 · AD San Carlos 1542

	Cartagines	Draw	AD San Carlos
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cartagines: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cartagines	AD San Carlos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.7	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.6	6.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.70
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.69
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.66 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:10 +14’	1.67	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:03 +18’	1.70	3.62	4.54
11:10 +17’	1.72▲	3.67▲	4.61▲
12:17 +13’	1.70▼	3.73▲	4.61
13:30 +4’	1.71▲	3.69▼	4.60▼
15:09 +27’	1.70▼	3.69	4.66▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cartagines 4–1–1 AD San Carlos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/09/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD San Carlos	1-0 HT 1-0	Cartagines
22/04/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Cartagines	2-1 HT 1-1	AD San Carlos
02/03/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD San Carlos	1-1 HT 1-0	Cartagines
02/11/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	Cartagines	2-1 HT 0-1	AD San Carlos
14/09/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD San Carlos	0-2 HT 0-1	Cartagines
17/04/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD San Carlos	1-2 HT 0-1	Cartagines

Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Saprissa	13	8	0	5	27	14	24
2	Cartagines	13	8	0	5	24	17	24
3	Sporting San Jose	13	7	3	3	26	20	24
4	Alajuelense	13	6	4	3	21	14	22
5	AD San Carlos	13	7	1	5	15	15	22
6	Puntarenas	13	5	3	5	15	19	18
7	Inter San Carlos	13	5	3	5	15	20	18
8	Herediano	13	4	2	7	15	17	14
9	Escorpiones de Belen FC	13	3	1	9	14	22	10
10	Municipal Perez Zeledon	13	2	3	8	9	23	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cartagines	AD San Carlos
Herediano	1-3 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Saprissa	1-0 W	2-1 W
Puntarenas	3-1 W	1-2 L
Sporting San Jose	1-3 L	3-3 D
Alajuelense	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cartagines

LWWWWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	1-3	5	1	L
18/10	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
14/10	Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
10/10	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	1-3	8	5	L
21/09	AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
14/09	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
07/09	Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	3-1	5	8	W
30/08	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
23/08	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	4-1	9	8	W
16/08	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division	1-2	2-3	6	7	L

AD San Carlos

WWLWWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division	2-0	2-1	5	6	W
20/10	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	1-3	3-3	5	7	D
14/10	Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	1-2	11	11	L
11/10	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
21/09	Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
12/09	Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division	2-0	2-0	6	8	W
07/09	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
31/08	Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
24/08	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	1-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cartagines vs AD San Carlos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cartagines win (54%). Probabilities: Cartagines 54%, draw 26%, AD San Carlos 20%.

How many goals are expected in Cartagines vs AD San Carlos?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Cartagines 1.73 · AD San Carlos 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cartagines vs AD San Carlos?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.