Football · Costa Rica Primera Division · 24/08, 02:00
Prediction: Alajuelense vs AD San Carlos
Team pages: Alajuelense · AD San Carlos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Alajuelense1.94
AD San Carlos0.82
1X2
Alajuelense
Draw
AD San Carlos
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Alajuelense
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
AD San Carlos
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alajuelense
4–2–0
AD San Carlos
(6 last)
- AD San Carlos0-2Alajuelense
- Alajuelense1-0AD San Carlos
- AD San Carlos0-2Alajuelense
- Alajuelense2-0AD San Carlos
- Alajuelense0-0AD San Carlos
- AD San Carlos0-0Alajuelense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alajuelense 1586 · AD San Carlos 1420
| Alajuelense | Draw | AD San Carlos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | 64% | 22% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alajuelense (rating 1586 vs 1420).
- H2H favours Alajuelense: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alajuelense | AD San Carlos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.8 | 2.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.4 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alajuelense 4–2–0 AD San Carlos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | AD San Carlos | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Alajuelense |
| 25/01/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 1-0 HT 0-0 | AD San Carlos |
| 07/12/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | AD San Carlos | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Alajuelense |
| 17/09/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 2-0 HT 2-0 | AD San Carlos |
| 28/03/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | AD San Carlos |
| 30/01/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | AD San Carlos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Alajuelense |
Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Alajuelense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Inter San Carlos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Cartagines | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Sporting San Jose | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 6 | Escorpiones de Belen FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 7 | Herediano | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Puntarenas | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| 9 | Municipal Perez Zeledon | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 10 | AD San Carlos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alajuelense | AD San Carlos |
|---|---|---|
| Herediano | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Sporting San Jose | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Municipal Liberia | 1-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Deportivo Saprissa | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Guadalupe FC | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Alajuelense (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alajuelense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 10/08 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 27/04 | Municipal Liberia Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
3-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 20/04 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 06/04 | Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 22/03 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
AD San Carlos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/08 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 22/04 | Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 13/04 | Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 07/04 | Municipal Liberia Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 23/03 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alajuelense vs AD San Carlos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alajuelense win (63%). Probabilities: Alajuelense 63%, draw 22%, AD San Carlos 14%.
How many goals are expected in Alajuelense vs AD San Carlos?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Alajuelense 1.94 · AD San Carlos 0.82), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Alajuelense vs AD San Carlos?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.