Football · Costa Rica Primera Division · 26/10, 01:00

Prediction: AD San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa

Team pages: AD San Carlos · Deportivo Saprissa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

AD San Carlos1.05

Deportivo Saprissa1.56

1X2

24% 28% 48%

AD San Carlos Draw Deportivo Saprissa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AD San Carlos 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWWLD

Deportivo Saprissa 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWLWL

Head-to-head

AD San Carlos 0–6 Deportivo Saprissa (6 last)

Deportivo Saprissa2-1AD San Carlos
AD San Carlos1-3Deportivo Saprissa
Deportivo Saprissa2-1AD San Carlos
AD San Carlos0-2Deportivo Saprissa
Deportivo Saprissa2-0AD San Carlos
Deportivo Saprissa3-0AD San Carlos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD San Carlos 1515 · Deportivo Saprissa 1544

	AD San Carlos	Draw	Deportivo Saprissa
Our model	24%	28%	48%
Market	24%	28%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Saprissa: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD San Carlos	Deportivo Saprissa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.30

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:16

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.83 → 3.88▲	Pinn 3.88
X	3.43 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.30
2	1.89 → 1.97▲	Pinn 1.97

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +12’	3.83	3.43	1.89
03:14 +2’	3.88▲	3.30▼	1.97▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD San Carlos 0–0–6 Deportivo Saprissa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/08/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Deportivo Saprissa	2-1 HT 0-0	AD San Carlos
23/03/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD San Carlos	1-3 HT 0-1	Deportivo Saprissa
08/02/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Deportivo Saprissa	2-1 HT 2-1	AD San Carlos
16/10/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD San Carlos	0-2 HT 0-0	Deportivo Saprissa
02/08/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	Deportivo Saprissa	2-0 HT 1-0	AD San Carlos
09/03/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	Deportivo Saprissa	3-0 HT 1-0	AD San Carlos

Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Saprissa	12	8	0	4	26	12	24
2	Cartagines	12	8	0	4	23	14	24
3	Sporting San Jose	12	6	3	3	22	18	21
4	Alajuelense	12	5	4	3	20	14	19
5	AD San Carlos	12	6	1	5	13	14	19
6	Inter San Carlos	12	5	3	4	14	17	18
7	Puntarenas	12	4	3	5	12	18	15
8	Herediano	12	3	2	7	12	16	11
9	Escorpiones de Belen FC	12	3	1	8	12	18	10
10	Municipal Perez Zeledon	12	2	3	7	9	22	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD San Carlos	Deportivo Saprissa
Sporting San Jose	3-3 D	6-0 W
Inter San Carlos	1-2 L	0-1 L
Herediano	1-0 W	2-0 W
Cartagines	1-0 W	0-1 L
Puntarenas	1-2 L	2-0 W
Alajuelense	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Saprissa (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD San Carlos

LWWLWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	1-3	3-3	5	7	D
14/10	Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	1-2	11	11	L
11/10	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
21/09	Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
12/09	Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division	2-0	2-0	6	8	W
07/09	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
31/08	Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
24/08	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
09/08	Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-2	6	6	L

Deportivo Saprissa

WWLWWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
16/10	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	3-0	6-0	10	2	W
12/10	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
20/09	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	2-0	4	11	W
14/09	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	1-3	2-4	4	5	L
06/09	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
31/08	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	2-1	10	3	W
23/08	Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-1	8	8	L
16/08	Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division	2-1	3-2	4	7	W
09/08	Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Saprissa win (48%). Probabilities: AD San Carlos 24%, draw 28%, Deportivo Saprissa 48%.

How many goals are expected in AD San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa?

The model expects 2.61 goals (AD San Carlos 1.05 · Deportivo Saprissa 1.56), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.