Football · Mexico Liga MX · 28/09, 03:00

Prediction: Leon vs Juarez FC

Team pages: Leon · Juarez FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Leon2.04

Juarez FC1.01

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Leon Draw Juarez FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Leon 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWDLWD

Juarez FC 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Leon 4–1–1 Juarez FC (6 last)

Leon3-1Juarez FC
Juarez FC2-0Leon
Leon1-0Juarez FC
Juarez FC2-3Leon
Juarez FC1-1Leon
Leon2-1Juarez FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leon 1533 · Juarez FC 1435

	Leon	Draw	Juarez FC
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leon (rating 1533 vs 1435).
H2H favours Leon: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leon	Juarez FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	0.8 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.5	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.00

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Pinn 1.61 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.11
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:00 +17’	1.55	4.00	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +14’	1.61	4.11	5.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leon 4–1–1 Juarez FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	3-1 HT 2-0	Juarez FC
27/09/25 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Leon
26/01/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-0 HT 0-0	Juarez FC
20/10/24 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	2-3 HT 0-1	Leon
28/04/24 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Leon
13/11/23 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	2-1 HT 2-1	Juarez FC

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	19
2	Chivas Guadalajara	9	5	3	1	17	8	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	15
5	Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	14
6	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	14
6	Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	13
11	Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	12
12	Unam Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	9
14	Atlante	9	1	5	3	8	13	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	7
18	Juarez FC	9	1	0	8	6	23	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leon	Juarez FC
Atletico San Luis	2-0 W	2-1 W
Unam Pumas	1-3 L	1-5 L
Monterrey	2-0 W	1-6 L
Pachuca	1-0 W	0-2 L
Toluca	1-4 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Leon (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leon

LLLWWWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
15/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
11/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	2	3	L
29/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
18/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
02/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	3	12	W
25/07	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
18/07	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
26/04	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-4	7	8	L

Juarez FC

WLLLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
14/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
05/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	1	10	L
31/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-4	3	2	L
22/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
16/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-4	1-6	0	0	L
01/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-3	1-5	2	3	L
26/07	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
18/07	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
26/04	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-1	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leon vs Juarez FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leon win (60%). Probabilities: Leon 60%, draw 23%, Juarez FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Leon vs Juarez FC?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Leon 2.04 · Juarez FC 1.01), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leon vs Juarez FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.