Football · Mexico Liga MX · 28/09, 05:00

Prediction: Necaxa vs Club America

Team pages: Necaxa · Club America

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Necaxa1.17

Club America1.84

1X2

23% 25% 52%

Necaxa Draw Club America

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Necaxa 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Club America 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Necaxa 1–3–2 Club America (6 last)

Club America2-0Necaxa
Necaxa1-1Club America
Club America2-3Necaxa
Necaxa1-1Club America
Necaxa0-0Club America
Club America3-2Necaxa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Necaxa 1427 · Club America 1570

	Necaxa	Draw	Club America
Our model	23%	25%	52%
Market	23%	26%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club America (rating 1427 vs 1570).
H2H favours Club America: 2-3-1.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Necaxa	Club America
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	2.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	3.8 / 8.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.77
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.89 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +2’	4.10	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:14 +424’	3.85	3.77	1.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Necaxa 1–3–2 Club America

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	2-0 HT 2-0	Necaxa
27/07/25 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	1-1 HT 1-1	Club America
15/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	2-3 HT 0-2	Necaxa
22/09/24 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	1-1 HT 1-0	Club America
28/01/24 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	0-0 HT 0-0	Club America
24/08/23 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	3-2 HT 2-1	Necaxa

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	19
2	Chivas Guadalajara	9	5	3	1	17	8	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	15
5	Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	14
6	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	14
6	Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	13
11	Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	12
12	Unam Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	9
14	Atlante	9	1	5	3	8	13	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	7
18	Juarez FC	9	1	0	8	6	23	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Necaxa	Club America
Atletico San Luis	1-3 L	3-0 W
Puebla	0-1 L	2-0 W
Cruz Azul	1-3 L	3-4 L
Unam Pumas	1-1 D	3-3 D
Atlante	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Club America (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Necaxa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
12/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
06/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
29/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	7	7	L
24/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
18/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
03/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-2	1-3	2	5	L
27/07	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
17/07	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	11	3	W
27/04	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-4	5	6	L

Club America

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
13/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-3	3-4	9	7	L
30/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
22/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
17/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	10	4	W
03/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
25/07	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
19/07	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	12	9	W
11/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	2-3	3-3	16	4	D
04/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-3	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Necaxa vs Club America?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Club America win (52%). Probabilities: Necaxa 23%, draw 25%, Club America 52%.

How many goals are expected in Necaxa vs Club America?

The model expects 3 goals (Necaxa 1.17 · Club America 1.84), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Necaxa vs Club America?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.