Football · Mexico Liga MX · 27/09, 01:00

Prediction: Cruz Azul vs Toluca

Team pages: Cruz Azul · Toluca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Cruz Azul1.42

Toluca1.49

1X2

35% 27% 38%

Cruz Azul Draw Toluca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cruz Azul 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Toluca 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cruz Azul 3–3–0 Toluca (6 last)

Toluca1-3Cruz Azul
Toluca1-1Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul1-0Toluca
Toluca2-2Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul1-1Toluca
Toluca0-1Cruz Azul

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (rating 1521 vs 1587).
H2H favours Cruz Azul: 3-3-0.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cruz Azul	Toluca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.5	3.2 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 32.01

Under 31.81

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:14

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.71 → 2.71	Pinn 2.71
X	3.22 → 3.22	Pinn 3.22
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
02:11 +3’	2.71	3.22	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruz Azul 3–3–0 Toluca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Mexico Champion of Champions	Toluca	1-3 HT 1-1	Cruz Azul
08/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Toluca	1-1 HT 1-0	Cruz Azul
24/08/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	1-0 HT 0-0	Toluca
20/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Toluca	2-2 HT 2-2	Cruz Azul
21/07/24 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	1-1 HT 0-1	Toluca
28/04/24 Mexico Liga MX	Toluca	0-1 HT 0-1	Cruz Azul

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Toluca	8	6	1	1	18	6	19
2	Chivas Guadalajara	9	5	3	1	17	8	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	15
5	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	14
6	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	14
7	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	13
8	Queretaro	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
9	Leon	8	4	1	3	11	9	13
10	Tijuana	7	4	1	2	10	8	13
11	Unam Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	12
12	Pachuca	8	3	2	3	13	8	11
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	9
14	Atlante	9	1	5	3	8	13	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	7
17	Santos Laguna	8	1	1	6	6	13	4
18	Juarez FC	9	1	0	8	6	23	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cruz Azul	Toluca
Necaxa	3-1 W	3-1 W
Atlas	0-2 L	5-2 W
Atlante	2-3 L	0-0 D
Puebla	2-1 W	1-0 W
Unam Pumas	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Toluca (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cruz Azul

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
13/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	3-0	4-3	6	7	W
07/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-2	9	1	L
17/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
02/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	7	3	L
22/07	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/07	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	3-2	4	3	W
25/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	7	3	W

Toluca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
13/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-2	6	4	W
31/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
22/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	6	7	W
16/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
03/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-1	6	6	W
22/07	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-2	9	2	L
19/07	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
11/05	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
04/05	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Toluca win (38%). Probabilities: Cruz Azul 35%, draw 27%, Toluca 38%.

How many goals are expected in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Cruz Azul 1.42 · Toluca 1.49), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.