Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 25/07, 14:45

Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Jagiellonia Bialystok1.67

Korona Kielce0.57

1X2

63% 25% 11%

Jagiellonia Bialystok Draw Korona Kielce

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Jagiellonia Bialystok 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWDWWW

Korona Kielce 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLWDWDDL

Head-to-head

Jagiellonia Bialystok 3–2–1 Korona Kielce (6 last)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jagiellonia Bialystok (rating 1582 vs 1471).
H2H favours Jagiellonia Bialystok: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Korona Kielce
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.84

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.05

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:16

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.98 → 1.98	Pinn 1.98
X	3.48 → 3.48	Pinn 3.48
2	3.77 → 3.77	Pinn 3.77

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15	1.98	3.48	3.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jagiellonia Bialystok 3–2–1 Korona Kielce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Korona Kielce	1-1 HT 1-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok
05/10/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	3-1 HT 1-0	Korona Kielce
27/04/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Korona Kielce	3-1 HT 1-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok
27/10/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	3-1 HT 1-0	Korona Kielce
11/05/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	3-0 HT 2-0	Korona Kielce
28/02/24 Poland Cup	Jagiellonia Bialystok	1-1 HT 0-0	Korona Kielce

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GKS Katowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Piast Gliwice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gornik Zabrze	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jagiellonia Bialystok	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lech Poznan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cracovia Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Legia Warsaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motor Lublin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Szczecin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Radomiak Radom	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rakow Czestochowa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Widzew Lodz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Plock	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Slask Wroclaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zaglebie Lubin	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Korona Kielce
GKS Katowice	2-2 D	1-1 D
Rakow Czestochowa	2-0 W	0-2 L
Gornik Zabrze	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Jagiellonia Bialystok (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Jagiellonia Bialystok

LWWDWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	FC Nordsjaelland Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-1	1	1	W
16/07	Sparta Prague Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/07	Pafos FC Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
09/07	Polissya Zhytomyr Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
04/07	MKP Pogon Siedlce Europe Friendlies	2-1	4-1	5	2	W
23/05	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
17/05	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-2	9	4	D
13/05	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
09/05	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	3-2	7	1	W
24/04	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-2	7	7	L

Korona Kielce

LDDLWDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Termalica BB Nieciecza Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
14/07	Stal Rzeszow Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
09/07	Omonia Nicosia Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
04/07	MFK Zemplin Michalovce Europe Friendlies	3-0	4-0	5	0	W
23/05	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	1	0	D
15/05	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
08/05	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
01/05	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
25/04	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
18/04	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jagiellonia Bialystok win (63%). Probabilities: Jagiellonia Bialystok 63%, draw 25%, Korona Kielce 11%.

How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok 1.67 · Korona Kielce 0.57), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.