Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 19/09, 14:45

Prediction: Korona Kielce vs Rakow Czestochowa

Team pages: Korona Kielce · Rakow Czestochowa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Korona Kielce1.35

Rakow Czestochowa1.02

1X2

44% 29% 28%

Korona Kielce Draw Rakow Czestochowa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Korona Kielce 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLDWDWDW

Rakow Czestochowa 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Korona Kielce 0–2–4 Rakow Czestochowa (6 last)

Rakow Czestochowa2-0Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce1-4Rakow Czestochowa
Korona Kielce1-1Rakow Czestochowa
Rakow Czestochowa1-1Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce0-2Rakow Czestochowa
Rakow Czestochowa1-0Korona Kielce

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Korona Kielce 1518 · Rakow Czestochowa 1475

	Korona Kielce	Draw	Rakow Czestochowa
Our model	43%	30%	27%
Market	44%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Korona Kielce (rating 1518 vs 1475).
H2H favours Rakow Czestochowa: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Korona Kielce	Rakow Czestochowa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:23 +14’	2.05	3.30	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Korona Kielce 0–2–4 Rakow Czestochowa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	2-0 HT 0-0	Korona Kielce
09/11/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Korona Kielce	1-4 HT 1-2	Rakow Czestochowa
17/05/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Korona Kielce	1-1 HT 1-0	Rakow Czestochowa
24/11/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	1-1 HT 1-0	Korona Kielce
13/03/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Korona Kielce	0-2 HT 0-2	Rakow Czestochowa
17/12/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	1-0 HT 0-0	Korona Kielce

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	7	6	0	1	14	8	18
2	Legia Warsaw	8	4	4	0	16	7	16
3	Lech Poznan	7	5	1	1	12	6	16
4	Wisla Krakow	8	4	2	2	15	11	14
5	Piast Gliwice	8	4	1	3	15	13	13
6	Pogon Szczecin	7	3	3	1	10	5	12
7	Korona Kielce	7	3	3	1	9	6	12
8	Zaglebie Lubin	7	3	3	1	8	6	12
9	Jagiellonia Bialystok	7	4	0	3	11	10	12
10	GKS Katowice	7	3	0	4	13	11	9
11	Widzew Lodz	8	1	5	2	11	11	8
12	Cracovia Krakow	8	2	2	4	7	11	8
13	Wisla Plock	7	2	2	3	7	12	8
14	Radomiak Radom	8	2	2	4	6	15	8
15	Slask Wroclaw	8	1	3	4	10	13	6
16	Motor Lublin	8	1	2	5	9	15	5
17	Wieczysta Krakow	7	1	1	5	9	15	4
18	Rakow Czestochowa	7	1	0	6	8	15	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Korona Kielce	Rakow Czestochowa
Slask Wroclaw	2-1 W	1-2 L
Wisla Plock	2-0 W	1-2 L
Motor Lublin	1-1 D	2-1 W
Jagiellonia Bialystok	0-1 L	2-5 L
Cracovia Krakow	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Korona Kielce (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Korona Kielce

LWDLDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
05/09	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
28/08	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	0	1	W
22/08	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	3	8	D
15/08	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
08/08	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
25/07	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
23/05	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	1	0	D
15/05	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
08/05	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-2	2	3	L

Rakow Czestochowa

LWWLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
06/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
03/09	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
30/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	2-5	5	2	L
16/08	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
02/08	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
26/07	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
23/05	Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-0	1	3	W
17/05	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	3-0	3-1	0	7	W
13/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Korona Kielce vs Rakow Czestochowa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Korona Kielce win (44%). Probabilities: Korona Kielce 44%, draw 29%, Rakow Czestochowa 28%.

How many goals are expected in Korona Kielce vs Rakow Czestochowa?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Korona Kielce 1.35 · Rakow Czestochowa 1.02), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Rakow Czestochowa?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.