Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 18/10, 14:45

Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok

Team pages: Zaglebie Lubin · Jagiellonia Bialystok

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Zaglebie Lubin1.3

Jagiellonia Bialystok1.34

1X2

35% 27% 38%

Zaglebie Lubin Draw Jagiellonia Bialystok

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Lubin 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDWWLL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWLLL

Head-to-head

Zaglebie Lubin 2–1–3 Jagiellonia Bialystok (6 last)

Jagiellonia Bialystok1-0Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin0-0Jagiellonia Bialystok
Jagiellonia Bialystok0-1Zaglebie Lubin
Jagiellonia Bialystok1-3Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin1-3Jagiellonia Bialystok
Zaglebie Lubin1-2Jagiellonia Bialystok

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Lubin 1494 · Jagiellonia Bialystok 1525

	Zaglebie Lubin	Draw	Jagiellonia Bialystok
Our model	35%	29%	37%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jagiellonia Bialystok: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Lubin	Jagiellonia Bialystok
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.50

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.65
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.61
2	2.35 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.57 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 4.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:07 +8’	2.63	3.50	2.35
13:37 +5’	2.55▼	3.50	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +493’	2.86	3.58	2.34
11:35 +41’	2.82▼	3.57▼	2.38▲
06:26 +49’	2.65▼	3.57	2.51▲
15:04 +46’	2.59▼	3.57	2.57▲
14:11 +16’	2.62▲	3.57	2.54▼
13:49 +35’	2.65▲	3.57	2.51▼
15:09 +86’	2.65	3.61▲	2.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Lubin 2–1–3 Jagiellonia Bialystok

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	1-0 HT 1-0	Zaglebie Lubin
30/11/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	0-0 HT 0-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok
11/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Jagiellonia Bialystok	0-1 HT 0-0	Zaglebie Lubin
21/04/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	1-3 HT 1-1	Zaglebie Lubin
19/10/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	1-3 HT 0-2	Jagiellonia Bialystok
20/04/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	1-2 HT 0-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	8	1	1	19	9	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	21	8	22
2	Legia Warsaw	10	6	4	0	21	8	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	9	5	3	1	14	6	18
5	GKS Katowice	10	6	0	4	22	15	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	5	3	3	17	14	18
7	Piast Gliwice	10	5	1	4	18	16	16
8	Korona Kielce	10	4	3	3	12	12	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	4	3	3	12	13	15
10	Jagiellonia Bialystok	9	4	0	5	13	16	12
11	Motor Lublin	11	3	3	5	15	19	12
12	Cracovia Krakow	10	3	2	5	12	15	11
13	Wisla Plock	9	3	2	4	9	15	11
14	Widzew Lodz	11	1	7	3	14	15	10
15	Wieczysta Krakow	11	2	2	7	16	21	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	2	2	6	9	23	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	1	3	7	14	22	6
18	Rakow Czestochowa	11	2	0	9	15	26	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Lubin	Jagiellonia Bialystok
Rakow Czestochowa	3-2 W	5-2 W
Slask Wroclaw	2-1 W	2-1 W
Legia Warsaw	1-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Jagiellonia Bialystok (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Lubin

WLWDDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-3	1	5	L
20/09	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
15/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	3-2	2	9	W
12/09	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
07/09	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
23/08	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
15/08	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
02/08	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-3	2	0	L
27/07	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	5	2	W

Jagiellonia Bialystok

WWWLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-3	4	6	L
20/09	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
11/09	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
06/09	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
03/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
30/08	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	5-2	6	2	W
09/08	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
31/07	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
25/07	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
23/05	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Jagiellonia Bialystok win (38%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 35%, draw 27%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 38%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Zaglebie Lubin 1.3 · Jagiellonia Bialystok 1.34), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.