Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 25/10, 17:30

Prediction: Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan

Team pages: Legia Warsaw · Lech Poznan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Legia Warsaw1.65

Lech Poznan1.39

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Legia Warsaw Draw Lech Poznan

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Legia Warsaw 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDDWDWWD

Lech Poznan 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Legia Warsaw 2–1–3 Lech Poznan (6 last)

Lech Poznan4-0Legia Warsaw
Legia Warsaw0-0Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan1-2Legia Warsaw
Legia Warsaw0-1Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan5-2Legia Warsaw
Lech Poznan1-2Legia Warsaw

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lech Poznan: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Legia Warsaw	Lech Poznan
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	2.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	1.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	3.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.94

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:22

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.83 → 2.83	Pinn 2.83
X	3.49 → 3.49	Pinn 3.49
2	2.41 → 2.41	Pinn 2.41

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:58 +84’	2.83	3.49	2.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Legia Warsaw 2–1–3 Lech Poznan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Lech Poznan	4-0 HT 4-0	Legia Warsaw
26/10/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Legia Warsaw	0-0 HT 0-0	Lech Poznan
13/07/25 Poland Super Cup	Lech Poznan	1-2 HT 0-2	Legia Warsaw
11/05/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Legia Warsaw	0-1 HT 0-0	Lech Poznan
10/11/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Lech Poznan	5-2 HT 2-2	Legia Warsaw
12/05/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Lech Poznan	1-2 HT 0-2	Legia Warsaw

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	11	8	2	1	20	10	26
2	Lech Poznan	10	8	1	1	27	9	25
3	Legia Warsaw	11	6	5	0	22	9	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	6	3	1	15	6	21
5	GKS Katowice	11	6	0	5	22	16	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	5	3	3	17	14	18
7	Zaglebie Lubin	11	5	3	3	13	13	18
8	Piast Gliwice	11	5	2	4	19	17	17
9	Korona Kielce	11	4	3	4	13	18	15
10	Cracovia Krakow	11	3	3	5	13	16	12
11	Motor Lublin	11	3	3	5	15	19	12
12	Jagiellonia Bialystok	10	4	0	6	13	17	12
13	Wisla Plock	9	3	2	4	9	15	11
14	Widzew Lodz	11	1	7	3	14	15	10
15	Wieczysta Krakow	11	2	2	7	16	21	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	2	2	6	9	23	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	1	3	7	14	22	6
18	Rakow Czestochowa	11	2	0	9	15	26	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Legia Warsaw	Lech Poznan
Cracovia Krakow	1-1 D	0-0 D
Jagiellonia Bialystok	3-1 W	2-1 W
Widzew Lodz	1-1 D	3-2 W
Slask Wroclaw	1-1 D	4-1 W
Piast Gliwice	1-1 D	3-0 W
Radomiak Radom	5-0 W	5-1 W
Korona Kielce	1-1 D	6-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Legia Warsaw

WDWDDWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
11/10	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
20/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
13/09	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
05/09	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
28/08	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
22/08	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
14/08	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	4-0	5-0	3	3	W
08/08	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-1	0	2	D
02/08	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	3-1	9	0	W

Lech Poznan

DWWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	4-0	6-1	5	5	W
10/10	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
20/09	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	3-1	5-1	10	3	W
12/09	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
06/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
03/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
30/08	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	3-2	9	3	W
09/08	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
01/08	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	2-1	7	3	W
25/07	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	9	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Legia Warsaw win (43%). Probabilities: Legia Warsaw 43%, draw 26%, Lech Poznan 31%.

How many goals are expected in Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Legia Warsaw 1.65 · Lech Poznan 1.39), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.