Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 25/10, 14:45

Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Plock

Team pages: Jagiellonia Bialystok · Wisla Plock

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Jagiellonia Bialystok1.75

Wisla Plock1.32

1X2

47% 25% 28%

Jagiellonia Bialystok Draw Wisla Plock

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLLLL

Wisla Plock 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLLDWWLW

Head-to-head

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2–1–3 Wisla Plock (6 last)

Jagiellonia Bialystok1-2Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock0-1Jagiellonia Bialystok
Wisla Plock2-4Jagiellonia Bialystok
Wisla Plock3-1Jagiellonia Bialystok
Jagiellonia Bialystok1-1Wisla Plock
Jagiellonia Bialystok0-1Wisla Plock

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jagiellonia Bialystok 1463 · Wisla Plock 1530

	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Draw	Wisla Plock
Our model	47%	26%	28%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wisla Plock (rating 1463 vs 1530).
H2H favours Wisla Plock: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Wisla Plock
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	2.2 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.01
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.65
2	3.30 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.51 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +8’	1.95	3.50	3.30
14:19 +7’	1.83▼	3.60▲	3.60▲
00:09 +5’	1.95▲	3.60	3.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +19’	1.88	3.70	3.73
20:16 +15’	1.90▲	3.74▲	3.77▲
11:48 +31’	2.01▲	3.65▼	3.51▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jagiellonia Bialystok 2–1–3 Wisla Plock

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	1-2 HT 1-2	Wisla Plock
19/09/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Wisla Plock	0-1 HT 0-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok
21/04/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Wisla Plock	2-4 HT 2-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok
14/01/23 Club Friendly List	Wisla Plock	3-1 HT 0-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok
07/10/22 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	1-1 HT 0-1	Wisla Plock
13/03/22 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	0-1 HT 0-1	Wisla Plock

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	11	8	2	1	20	10	26
2	Lech Poznan	10	8	1	1	27	9	25
3	Legia Warsaw	11	6	5	0	22	9	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	6	3	1	15	6	21
5	GKS Katowice	11	6	0	5	22	16	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	5	3	3	17	14	18
7	Zaglebie Lubin	11	5	3	3	13	13	18
8	Piast Gliwice	11	5	2	4	19	17	17
9	Korona Kielce	11	4	3	4	13	18	15
10	Wisla Plock	10	4	2	4	10	15	14
11	Cracovia Krakow	11	3	3	5	13	16	12
12	Motor Lublin	11	3	3	5	15	19	12
13	Jagiellonia Bialystok	10	4	0	6	13	17	12
14	Widzew Lodz	11	1	7	3	14	15	10
15	Wieczysta Krakow	11	2	2	7	16	21	8
16	Radomiak Radom	11	2	2	7	9	24	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	1	3	7	14	22	6
18	Rakow Czestochowa	11	2	0	9	15	26	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Wisla Plock
Zaglebie Lubin	0-1 L	2-0 W
Wisla Krakow	0-2 L	1-2 L
Rakow Czestochowa	5-2 W	2-1 W
Widzew Lodz	0-2 L	0-0 D
Korona Kielce	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wisla Plock (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jagiellonia Bialystok

WWLWLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
10/10	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-3	4	6	L
20/09	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
11/09	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
06/09	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
03/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
30/08	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	5-2	6	2	W
09/08	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
31/07	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
25/07	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	3	1	W

Wisla Plock

WDLLLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
09/10	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
20/09	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
13/09	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
07/09	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
28/08	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	10	1	L
23/08	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	0-5	11	2	L
07/08	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	1-2	10	3	L
31/07	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
26/07	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Plock?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jagiellonia Bialystok win (47%). Probabilities: Jagiellonia Bialystok 47%, draw 25%, Wisla Plock 28%.

How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Plock?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok 1.75 · Wisla Plock 1.32), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Plock?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.