Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 02/11, 18:00

Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce

Team pages: Zaglebie Lubin · Korona Kielce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Zaglebie Lubin1.3

Korona Kielce1.3

1X2

36% 29% 36%

Zaglebie Lubin Draw Korona Kielce

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Lubin 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDWWLLWD

Korona Kielce 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Zaglebie Lubin 2–2–2 Korona Kielce (6 last)

Korona Kielce1-2Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin1-1Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin1-1Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce2-0Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin1-0Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce2-0Zaglebie Lubin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Lubin 1520 · Korona Kielce 1516

	Zaglebie Lubin	Draw	Korona Kielce
Our model	36%	29%	36%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Lubin	Korona Kielce
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.20

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.38
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.75 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +10’	2.55	3.20	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	2.71	3.37	2.57
10:13 +11’	2.51▼	3.37	2.78▲
19:06 +18’	2.53▲	3.38▲	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Lubin 2–2–2 Korona Kielce

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Korona Kielce	1-2 HT 1-0	Zaglebie Lubin
01/08/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	1-1 HT 0-0	Korona Kielce
16/03/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	1-1 HT 1-0	Korona Kielce
15/09/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Korona Kielce	2-0 HT 2-0	Zaglebie Lubin
03/03/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	1-0 HT 1-0	Korona Kielce
27/08/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Korona Kielce	2-0 HT 2-0	Zaglebie Lubin

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	11	9	1	1	29	10	28
2	Gornik Zabrze	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	7	3	1	19	9	24
4	Legia Warsaw	12	6	5	1	23	11	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	6	3	3	19	15	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	6	2	4	22	18	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	5	4	3	15	15	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	6	0	6	22	17	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	5	3	4	14	18	18
10	Jagiellonia Bialystok	11	5	0	6	14	17	15
11	Wisla Plock	11	4	2	5	10	16	14
12	Motor Lublin	12	3	4	5	17	21	13
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	3	3	6	14	19	12
14	Widzew Lodz	12	1	8	3	15	16	11
15	Slask Wroclaw	12	2	3	7	16	22	9
16	Wieczysta Krakow	12	2	2	8	16	23	8
17	Radomiak Radom	12	2	2	8	12	28	8
18	Rakow Czestochowa	12	2	0	10	16	28	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Lubin	Korona Kielce
Motor Lublin	2-2 D	1-1 D
Wisla Plock	0-2 L	2-0 W
Rakow Czestochowa	3-2 W	3-2 W
GKS Katowice	2-1 W	1-0 W
Pogon Szczecin	0-0 D	0-2 L
Slask Wroclaw	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Lubin

WDDDWWLLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-2	2	4	D
18/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
10/10	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-3	1	5	L
20/09	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
15/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	3-2	2	9	W
12/09	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
07/09	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
23/08	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
15/08	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-1	8	4	W

Korona Kielce

WDWDWLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
18/10	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-4	1-6	7	5	L
11/10	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
19/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	3-2	7	4	W
15/09	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
12/09	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
05/09	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
28/08	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	0	1	W
22/08	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
15/08	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Lubin win (36%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 36%, draw 29%, Korona Kielce 36%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Zaglebie Lubin 1.3 · Korona Kielce 1.3), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.