Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 08/11, 20:15
Prediction: Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
Team pages: Lech Poznan · Zaglebie Lubin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.97Total
Lech Poznan2.01
Zaglebie Lubin0.95
1X2
Lech Poznan
Draw
Zaglebie Lubin
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Lech Poznan
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Zaglebie Lubin
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lech Poznan
4–1–1
Zaglebie Lubin
(6 last)
- Zaglebie Lubin0-1Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan1-2Zaglebie Lubin
- Lech Poznan3-1Zaglebie Lubin
- Zaglebie Lubin0-1Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan2-0Zaglebie Lubin
- Zaglebie Lubin1-1Lech Poznan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lech Poznan 1563 · Zaglebie Lubin 1506
| Lech Poznan | Draw | Zaglebie Lubin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lech Poznan (rating 1563 vs 1506).
- H2H favours Lech Poznan: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lech Poznan | Zaglebie Lubin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.3 | 1.4 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lech Poznan 4–1–1 Zaglebie Lubin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Poland Ekstraklasa | Zaglebie Lubin | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Lech Poznan |
| 12/09/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Zaglebie Lubin |
| 23/02/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Zaglebie Lubin |
| 17/08/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Zaglebie Lubin | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Lech Poznan |
| 10/02/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Zaglebie Lubin |
| 06/08/23 Poland Ekstraklasa | Zaglebie Lubin | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lech Poznan |
Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Legia Warsaw | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 24 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 24 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 22 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 22 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 21 |
| 9 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 24 | 19 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 18 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 15 |
| 13 | Widzew Lodz | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 14 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 29 | 14 |
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 12 |
| 16 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 10 |
| 17 | Rakow Czestochowa | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 9 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Krakow | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 8 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lech Poznan | Zaglebie Lubin |
|---|---|---|
| Korona Kielce | 6-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Radomiak Radom | 5-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Rakow Czestochowa | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lech Poznan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 25/10 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa |
4-0 | 6-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
3-1 | 5-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 03/09 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Zaglebie Lubin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/10 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 15/09 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 12/09 | GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 07/09 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 23/08 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lech Poznan win (61%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan 61%, draw 22%, Zaglebie Lubin 16%.
How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin?
The model expects 2.97 goals (Lech Poznan 2.01 · Zaglebie Lubin 0.95), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.