Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 08/11, 17:30
Prediction: Legia Warsaw vs Rakow Czestochowa
Team pages: Legia Warsaw · Rakow Czestochowa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.14Total
Legia Warsaw1.88
Rakow Czestochowa1.27
1X2
Legia Warsaw
Draw
Rakow Czestochowa
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Legia Warsaw
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Rakow Czestochowa
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Legia Warsaw
0–3–3
Rakow Czestochowa
(6 last)
- Legia Warsaw1-1Rakow Czestochowa
- Rakow Czestochowa1-1Legia Warsaw
- Rakow Czestochowa3-2Legia Warsaw
- Legia Warsaw0-1Rakow Czestochowa
- Rakow Czestochowa1-1Legia Warsaw
- Legia Warsaw1-2Rakow Czestochowa
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Legia Warsaw 1526 · Rakow Czestochowa 1458
| Legia Warsaw | Draw | Rakow Czestochowa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Legia Warsaw (rating 1526 vs 1458).
- H2H favours Rakow Czestochowa: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Legia Warsaw | Rakow Czestochowa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 2.1 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Legia Warsaw 0–3–3 Rakow Czestochowa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Poland Ekstraklasa | Legia Warsaw | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Rakow Czestochowa |
| 20/09/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Rakow Czestochowa | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Legia Warsaw |
| 16/03/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Rakow Czestochowa | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Legia Warsaw |
| 15/09/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Legia Warsaw | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Rakow Czestochowa |
| 13/04/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Rakow Czestochowa | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Legia Warsaw |
| 08/10/23 Poland Ekstraklasa | Legia Warsaw | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Rakow Czestochowa |
Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Legia Warsaw | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 24 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 24 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 22 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 22 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 21 |
| 9 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 24 | 19 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 18 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 15 |
| 13 | Widzew Lodz | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 14 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 29 | 14 |
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 12 |
| 16 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 10 |
| 17 | Rakow Czestochowa | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 9 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Krakow | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Legia Warsaw | Rakow Czestochowa |
|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Lech Poznan | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Wisla Krakow | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | 3-1 W | 2-5 L |
| Motor Lublin | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Legia Warsaw (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Legia Warsaw
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 25/10 | Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/10 | Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 14/08 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
4-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Rakow Czestochowa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 24/10 | Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 16/10 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/10 | GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/09 | Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 11/09 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 03/09 | Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-2 | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Legia Warsaw vs Rakow Czestochowa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Legia Warsaw win (51%). Probabilities: Legia Warsaw 51%, draw 25%, Rakow Czestochowa 25%.
How many goals are expected in Legia Warsaw vs Rakow Czestochowa?
The model expects 3.14 goals (Legia Warsaw 1.88 · Rakow Czestochowa 1.27), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Legia Warsaw vs Rakow Czestochowa?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.