Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 24/07, 20:30

Prediction: Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warsaw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Pogon Szczecin0.94

Legia Warsaw1.32

1X2

25% 31% 44%

Pogon Szczecin Draw Legia Warsaw

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Pogon Szczecin 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Legia Warsaw 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Pogon Szczecin 1–2–3 Legia Warsaw (6 last)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Legia Warsaw (rating 1489 vs 1600).
H2H favours Legia Warsaw: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pogon Szczecin	Legia Warsaw
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.91

Under 2.51.91

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.86 → 2.86	Pinn 2.86
X	3.31 → 3.31	Pinn 3.31
2	2.48 → 2.48	Pinn 2.48

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +1’	2.86	3.31	2.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pogon Szczecin 1–2–3 Legia Warsaw

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Pogon Szczecin	0-2 HT 0-1	Legia Warsaw
30/10/25 Poland Cup	Legia Warsaw	1-1 HT 0-0	Pogon Szczecin
28/09/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Legia Warsaw	1-0 HT 1-0	Pogon Szczecin
02/05/25 Poland Cup	Pogon Szczecin	3-4 HT 1-1	Legia Warsaw
28/03/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Legia Warsaw	0-0 HT 0-0	Pogon Szczecin
20/09/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Pogon Szczecin	1-0 HT 0-0	Legia Warsaw

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GKS Katowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Piast Gliwice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gornik Zabrze	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jagiellonia Bialystok	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lech Poznan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cracovia Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Legia Warsaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motor Lublin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Szczecin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Radomiak Radom	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rakow Czestochowa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Widzew Lodz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Plock	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Slask Wroclaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zaglebie Lubin	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pogon Szczecin	Legia Warsaw
Zaglebie Lubin	1-0 W	1-0 W
Lech Poznan	1-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pogon Szczecin (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Pogon Szczecin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	SK Sturm Graz Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
11/07	Fenerbahce Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-4	0	1	L
08/07	Chrobry Glogow Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
27/06	BFC Dynamo Club Friendly List	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
23/05	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
15/05	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
09/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	2-3	0	1	L
03/05	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
25/04	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-1	0	7	D
18/04	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-2	5	6	L

Legia Warsaw

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/07	Radomiak Radom Europe Friendlies	0-1	3-1	0	0	W
10/07	AS Trencin Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	11	5	W
27/06	Bayern Munich II Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
17/05	Lechia Gdansk Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
10/05	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
01/05	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
26/04	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-4	0-4	2	2	L
17/04	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
11/04	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	6	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warsaw?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Legia Warsaw win (44%). Probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 25%, draw 31%, Legia Warsaw 44%.

How many goals are expected in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warsaw?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Pogon Szczecin 0.94 · Legia Warsaw 1.32), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warsaw?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.