Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 25/07, 17:30

Prediction: Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Gornik Zabrze1.6

Slask Wroclaw1

1X2

51% 27% 23%

Gornik Zabrze Draw Slask Wroclaw

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gornik Zabrze 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Slask Wroclaw 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gornik Zabrze 4–1–1 Slask Wroclaw (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gornik Zabrze 1560 · Slask Wroclaw 1597

	Gornik Zabrze	Draw	Slask Wroclaw
Our model	50%	27%	22%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gornik Zabrze: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gornik Zabrze	Slask Wroclaw
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	3.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.5	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.45

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.79
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.63 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +4’	1.80	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15	1.68	3.79	4.71
18:19	1.72▲	3.79	4.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gornik Zabrze 4–1–1 Slask Wroclaw

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Gornik Zabrze	2-0 HT 1-0	Slask Wroclaw
09/11/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Slask Wroclaw	0-1 HT 0-1	Gornik Zabrze
14/04/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Gornik Zabrze	2-0 HT 1-0	Slask Wroclaw
08/10/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Slask Wroclaw	1-1 HT 1-0	Gornik Zabrze
23/04/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Gornik Zabrze	2-0 HT 2-0	Slask Wroclaw
08/10/22 Poland Ekstraklasa	Slask Wroclaw	4-1 HT 2-0	Gornik Zabrze

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GKS Katowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Piast Gliwice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gornik Zabrze	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jagiellonia Bialystok	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lech Poznan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cracovia Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Legia Warsaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motor Lublin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Szczecin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Radomiak Radom	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rakow Czestochowa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Widzew Lodz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Plock	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Slask Wroclaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zaglebie Lubin	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gornik Zabrze

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Lech Poznan Poland Super Cup	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
10/07	FC Nordsjaelland Club Friendly List	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/07	WSG Swarovski Tirol Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
04/07	FC Salzburg Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	2	0	L
28/06	Hallescher FC Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-1	5	0	W
24/06	Puszcza Niepolomice Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
23/05	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	5-0	6-2	6	5	W
16/05	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
13/05	Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
09/05	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-2	15	1	L

Slask Wroclaw

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	FC Trinity Zlin Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
11/07	Odra Opole Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
08/07	Lechia Zielona Góra Club Friendly List	1-0	6-0	–	–	W
04/07	Chrobry Glogow Europe Friendlies	2-0	4-1	4	1	W
27/06	Bielawianka Bielawa Club Friendly List	5-0	11-0	–	–	W
24/05	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
17/05	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	0-1	3-1	4	2	W
11/05	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
01/05	Gornik Leczna Poland I Liga	2-0	4-0	3	5	W
25/04	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	2-2	3-2	12	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gornik Zabrze win (51%). Probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 51%, draw 27%, Slask Wroclaw 23%.

How many goals are expected in Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Gornik Zabrze 1.6 · Slask Wroclaw 1), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.