Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 25/07, 20:15

Prediction: Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Lech Poznan2.03

Cracovia Krakow1.1

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Lech Poznan Draw Cracovia Krakow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lech Poznan 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDWDWW

Cracovia Krakow 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DLDDDDDLWW

Head-to-head

Lech Poznan 2–3–1 Cracovia Krakow (6 last)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lech Poznan (rating 1578 vs 1494).
H2H favours Lech Poznan: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lech Poznan	Cracovia Krakow
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.6	2.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.48
X	4.45 → 4.45	Pinn 4.45
2	6.21 → 6.21	Pinn 6.21

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18	1.48	4.45	6.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lech Poznan 2–3–1 Cracovia Krakow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/12/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Cracovia Krakow	2-2 HT 1-1	Lech Poznan
18/07/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Lech Poznan	1-4 HT 1-2	Cracovia Krakow
21/04/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Lech Poznan	2-1 HT 1-0	Cracovia Krakow
19/10/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Cracovia Krakow	0-2 HT 0-0	Lech Poznan
28/04/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Lech Poznan	0-0 HT 0-0	Cracovia Krakow
28/10/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Cracovia Krakow	1-1 HT 0-1	Lech Poznan

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GKS Katowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Piast Gliwice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gornik Zabrze	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jagiellonia Bialystok	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lech Poznan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cracovia Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Legia Warsaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motor Lublin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Szczecin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Radomiak Radom	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rakow Czestochowa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Widzew Lodz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Plock	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Slask Wroclaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zaglebie Lubin	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lech Poznan	Cracovia Krakow
Radomiak Radom	3-1 W	0-0 D
Arka Gdynia	1-1 D	2-2 D
Motor Lublin	1-0 W	3-3 D
Pogon Szczecin	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lech Poznan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Gornik Zabrze Poland Super Cup	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
04/07	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-1	2	0	W
23/05	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
16/05	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
08/05	Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	15	5	D
02/05	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
26/04	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	4-0	4-0	5	2	W
18/04	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
12/04	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	3-3	6	1	D
04/04	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Cracovia Krakow

DLDDDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/07	Pardubice Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
06/07	Istanbul Basaksehir Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-1	0	0	W
03/07	Pafos FC Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-2	1	0	L
23/05	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	3	0	D
16/05	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	3-3	7	7	D
11/05	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	5	10	D
03/05	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
25/04	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
19/04	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	1-4	7	4	L
12/04	Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-2	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lech Poznan win (58%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan 58%, draw 23%, Cracovia Krakow 19%.

How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Lech Poznan 2.03 · Cracovia Krakow 1.1), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.