Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 23/08, 20:15
Prediction: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow
Team pages: Pogon Szczecin · Wisla Krakow
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
Pogon Szczecin1.6
Wisla Krakow1.33
1X2
Pogon Szczecin
Draw
Wisla Krakow
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Pogon Szczecin
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Wisla Krakow
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pogon Szczecin
2–3–1
Wisla Krakow
(6 last)
- Pogon Szczecin3-3Wisla Krakow
- Pogon Szczecin1-1Wisla Krakow
- Pogon Szczecin4-1Wisla Krakow
- Wisla Krakow0-1Pogon Szczecin
- Wisla Krakow2-1Pogon Szczecin
- Pogon Szczecin2-2Wisla Krakow
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pogon Szczecin 1528 · Wisla Krakow 1526
| Pogon Szczecin | Draw | Wisla Krakow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Pogon Szczecin: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pogon Szczecin | Wisla Krakow | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.4 | 4.4 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.3 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pogon Szczecin 2–3–1 Wisla Krakow
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/25 Europe Friendlies | Pogon Szczecin | 3-3 HT 1-0 | Wisla Krakow |
| 02/05/24 Poland Cup | Pogon Szczecin | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Wisla Krakow |
| 18/03/22 Poland Ekstraklasa | Pogon Szczecin | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Wisla Krakow |
| 26/09/21 Poland Ekstraklasa | Wisla Krakow | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Pogon Szczecin |
| 19/02/21 Poland Ekstraklasa | Wisla Krakow | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Pogon Szczecin |
| 13/09/20 Poland Ekstraklasa | Pogon Szczecin | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Wisla Krakow |
Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warsaw | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Zaglebie Lubin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Widzew Lodz | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 9 | Cracovia Krakow | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Slask Wroclaw | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Krakow | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Piast Gliwice | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 3 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| 18 | Rakow Czestochowa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pogon Szczecin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 03/08 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 24/07 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/07 | SK Sturm Graz Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Fenerbahce Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 08/07 | Chrobry Glogow Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | BFC Dynamo Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
Wisla Krakow
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 07/08 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-2 | 3-4 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | SK Artis Brno Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 12/07 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala II Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Wrexham Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 04/07 | MFK Karvina Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/07 | Puszcza Niepolomice Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 27/06 | Termalica BB Nieciecza Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 3-4 | 12 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pogon Szczecin win (43%). Probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 43%, draw 27%, Wisla Krakow 31%.
How many goals are expected in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
The model expects 2.93 goals (Pogon Szczecin 1.6 · Wisla Krakow 1.33), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.