Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 22/08, 17:30
Prediction: Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warsaw
Team pages: Piast Gliwice · Legia Warsaw
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Piast Gliwice1.13
Legia Warsaw1.54
1X2
Piast Gliwice
Draw
Legia Warsaw
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Piast Gliwice
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Legia Warsaw
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Piast Gliwice
4–1–1
Legia Warsaw
(6 last)
- Legia Warsaw0-1Piast Gliwice
- Piast Gliwice2-0Legia Warsaw
- Piast Gliwice1-0Legia Warsaw
- Legia Warsaw1-2Piast Gliwice
- Legia Warsaw3-1Piast Gliwice
- Piast Gliwice1-1Legia Warsaw
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Piast Gliwice 1477 · Legia Warsaw 1583
| Piast Gliwice | Draw | Legia Warsaw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 28% | 46% |
| Market | 27% | 28% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Legia Warsaw (rating 1477 vs 1583).
- H2H favours Piast Gliwice: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Piast Gliwice | Legia Warsaw | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.1 | 2.4 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.1 | 3.1 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Piast Gliwice 4–1–1 Legia Warsaw
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Legia Warsaw | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Piast Gliwice |
| 06/12/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Piast Gliwice | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Legia Warsaw |
| 08/02/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Piast Gliwice | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Legia Warsaw |
| 04/08/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Legia Warsaw | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Piast Gliwice |
| 17/03/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Legia Warsaw | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Piast Gliwice |
| 16/09/23 Poland Ekstraklasa | Piast Gliwice | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Legia Warsaw |
Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warsaw | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Zaglebie Lubin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Widzew Lodz | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 9 | Cracovia Krakow | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Slask Wroclaw | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Krakow | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Piast Gliwice | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 3 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| 18 | Rakow Czestochowa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Piast Gliwice
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 4-3 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 27/07 | Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 08/07 | Miedz Legnica Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 04/07 | Banik Ostrava Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 01/07 | GKS Katowice Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Rakow Czestochowa Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-3 | 1-3 | 9 | 7 | L |
Legia Warsaw
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
4-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 02/08 | Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 24/07 | Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Radomiak Radom Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 10/07 | AS Trencin Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Bayern Munich II Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Lechia Gdansk Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warsaw?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Legia Warsaw win (46%). Probabilities: Piast Gliwice 27%, draw 28%, Legia Warsaw 46%.
How many goals are expected in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warsaw?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Piast Gliwice 1.13 · Legia Warsaw 1.54), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warsaw?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.