Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 12/09, 17:30
Prediction: Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan
Team pages: Gornik Zabrze · Lech Poznan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Gornik Zabrze1.31
Lech Poznan1.59
1X2
Gornik Zabrze
Draw
Lech Poznan
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Gornik Zabrze
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Lech Poznan
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gornik Zabrze
2–4
Lech Poznan
(6 last)
- Lech Poznan3-1Gornik Zabrze
- Lech Poznan0-1Gornik Zabrze
- Gornik Zabrze0-1Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan2-1Gornik Zabrze
- Gornik Zabrze2-1Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan2-0Gornik Zabrze
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lech Poznan (rating 1517 vs 1613).
- H2H favours Lech Poznan: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gornik Zabrze | Lech Poznan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 2.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.2 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 7.1 | 3.7 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gornik Zabrze 2–0–4 Lech Poznan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/26 Poland Super Cup | Lech Poznan | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Gornik Zabrze |
| 04/03/26 Poland Cup | Lech Poznan | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Gornik Zabrze |
| 07/02/26 Poland Ekstraklasa | Gornik Zabrze | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Lech Poznan |
| 02/08/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Gornik Zabrze |
| 06/12/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Gornik Zabrze | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Lech Poznan |
| 21/07/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gornik Zabrze |
Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warsaw | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | Wisla Krakow | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| 5 | Piast Gliwice | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 10 |
| 6 | GKS Katowice | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Pogon Szczecin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | Zaglebie Lubin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 12 | Radomiak Radom | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| 13 | Widzew Lodz | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| 14 | Slask Wroclaw | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 15 | Motor Lublin | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 5 |
| 16 | Wisla Plock | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 4 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Krakow | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 3 |
| 18 | Rakow Czestochowa | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gornik Zabrze | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|
| Cracovia Krakow | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Radomiak Radom | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Wisla Plock | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Arka Gdynia | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Gornik Zabrze (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gornik Zabrze
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/09 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 2-3 | 13 | 1 | L |
| 16/08 | Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 25/07 | Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
5-0 | 6-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 09/05 | Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-2 | 15 | 1 | L |
Lech Poznan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-1 | 15 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lech Poznan win (43%). Probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 30%, draw 27%, Lech Poznan 43%.
How many goals are expected in Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Gornik Zabrze 1.31 · Lech Poznan 1.59), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.