Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 11/10, 17:30
Prediction: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
Team pages: Pogon Szczecin · Korona Kielce
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Pogon Szczecin1.34
Korona Kielce1.13
1X2
Pogon Szczecin
Draw
Korona Kielce
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Pogon Szczecin
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Korona Kielce
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pogon Szczecin
3–2–1
Korona Kielce
(6 last)
- Pogon Szczecin2-1Korona Kielce
- Korona Kielce1-0Pogon Szczecin
- Korona Kielce0-0Pogon Szczecin
- Pogon Szczecin3-0Korona Kielce
- Korona Kielce2-2Pogon Szczecin
- Pogon Szczecin3-1Korona Kielce
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pogon Szczecin 1544 · Korona Kielce 1533
| Pogon Szczecin | Draw | Korona Kielce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Pogon Szczecin: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pogon Szczecin | Korona Kielce | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/80/0% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.9 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pogon Szczecin 3–2–1 Korona Kielce
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/26 Poland Ekstraklasa | Pogon Szczecin | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Korona Kielce |
| 13/09/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Korona Kielce | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Pogon Szczecin |
| 09/12/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Korona Kielce | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Pogon Szczecin |
| 20/07/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Pogon Szczecin | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Korona Kielce |
| 17/03/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Korona Kielce | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Pogon Szczecin |
| 16/09/23 Poland Ekstraklasa | Pogon Szczecin | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Korona Kielce |
Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Legia Warsaw | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Wisla Krakow | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 17 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 15 |
| 6 | Pogon Szczecin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 15 |
| 8 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| 9 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| 13 | Widzew Lodz | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Krakow | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 8 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 8 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 6 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 6 |
| 18 | Rakow Czestochowa | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pogon Szczecin | Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|
| Wisla Plock | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Wisla Krakow | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Motor Lublin | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Cracovia Krakow | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Legia Warsaw | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 4 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pogon Szczecin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 07/09 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 23/08 | Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 03/08 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 24/07 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Korona Kielce
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/09 | Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 28/08 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 15/08 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pogon Szczecin win (40%). Probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 40%, draw 29%, Korona Kielce 30%.
How many goals are expected in Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Pogon Szczecin 1.34 · Korona Kielce 1.13), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.