Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 18/10, 17:30
Prediction: Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
Team pages: Lech Poznan · Korona Kielce
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Lech Poznan2.07
Korona Kielce0.96
1X2
Lech Poznan
Draw
Korona Kielce
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Lech Poznan
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Korona Kielce
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lech Poznan
4–1–1
Korona Kielce
(6 last)
- Korona Kielce1-2Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan1-1Korona Kielce
- Lech Poznan2-0Korona Kielce
- Korona Kielce2-3Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan1-2Korona Kielce
- Korona Kielce0-1Lech Poznan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lech Poznan 1556 · Korona Kielce 1512
| Lech Poznan | Draw | Korona Kielce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lech Poznan (rating 1556 vs 1512).
- H2H favours Lech Poznan: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lech Poznan | Korona Kielce | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.7 | 2.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lech Poznan 4–1–1 Korona Kielce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Poland Ekstraklasa | Korona Kielce | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Lech Poznan |
| 16/08/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Korona Kielce |
| 05/04/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Korona Kielce |
| 29/09/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Korona Kielce | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Lech Poznan |
| 25/05/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Korona Kielce |
| 02/12/23 Poland Ekstraklasa | Korona Kielce | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lech Poznan |
Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | Legia Warsaw | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 18 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 18 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 16 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 12 |
| 12 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 11 |
| 13 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| 14 | Widzew Lodz | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Krakow | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 8 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 8 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 6 |
| 18 | Rakow Czestochowa | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 26 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lech Poznan | Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Gornik Zabrze | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Rakow Czestochowa | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Widzew Lodz | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Wisla Plock | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lech Poznan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
3-1 | 5-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 03/09 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
Korona Kielce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/09 | Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 28/08 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 15/08 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lech Poznan win (62%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan 62%, draw 22%, Korona Kielce 16%.
How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Lech Poznan 2.07 · Korona Kielce 0.96), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.