Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 10/10, 20:15

Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze

Team pages: Jagiellonia Bialystok · Gornik Zabrze

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Jagiellonia Bialystok1.68

Gornik Zabrze1.55

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Jagiellonia Bialystok Draw Gornik Zabrze

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Jagiellonia Bialystok 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWLWLL

Gornik Zabrze 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWWD

Head-to-head

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2–1–3 Gornik Zabrze (6 last)

Jagiellonia Bialystok1-2Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze2-1Jagiellonia Bialystok
Jagiellonia Bialystok1-1Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze0-2Jagiellonia Bialystok
Gornik Zabrze2-1Jagiellonia Bialystok
Jagiellonia Bialystok4-1Gornik Zabrze

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gornik Zabrze: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Gornik Zabrze
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.89

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:15

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.55
X	3.41 → 3.41	Pinn 3.41
2	2.71 → 2.71	Pinn 2.71

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +169’	2.55	3.41	2.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jagiellonia Bialystok 2–1–3 Gornik Zabrze

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	1-2 HT 0-0	Gornik Zabrze
26/10/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Gornik Zabrze	2-1 HT 1-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok
04/05/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	1-1 HT 1-1	Gornik Zabrze
03/11/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Gornik Zabrze	0-2 HT 0-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok
02/03/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Gornik Zabrze	2-1 HT 1-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok
27/08/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	4-1 HT 3-1	Gornik Zabrze

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	9	7	1	1	16	8	22
2	Legia Warsaw	9	5	4	0	19	8	19
3	Lech Poznan	8	6	1	1	17	7	19
4	Wisla Krakow	9	5	2	2	17	12	17
5	Pogon Szczecin	8	4	3	1	12	6	15
6	Korona Kielce	9	4	3	2	12	10	15
7	Zaglebie Lubin	9	4	3	2	11	10	15
8	Piast Gliwice	9	4	1	4	16	15	13
9	GKS Katowice	8	4	0	4	16	13	12
10	Jagiellonia Bialystok	8	4	0	4	12	13	12
11	Wisla Plock	8	3	2	3	9	12	11
12	Widzew Lodz	9	1	6	2	13	13	9
13	Cracovia Krakow	9	2	2	5	9	14	8
14	Radomiak Radom	9	2	2	5	7	20	8
15	Slask Wroclaw	9	1	3	5	11	15	6
16	Motor Lublin	9	1	3	5	9	15	6
17	Wieczysta Krakow	8	1	2	5	11	17	5
18	Rakow Czestochowa	9	1	0	8	12	21	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Gornik Zabrze
Wisla Krakow	0-2 L	2-1 W
Slask Wroclaw	2-1 W	2-1 W
Lech Poznan	1-2 L	2-1 W
Rakow Czestochowa	5-2 W	2-1 W
Motor Lublin	2-1 W	0-0 D
Korona Kielce	1-0 W	2-0 W
GKS Katowice	2-2 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jagiellonia Bialystok

DWWWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
11/09	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
06/09	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
03/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
30/08	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	5-2	6	2	W
09/08	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
31/07	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
25/07	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
23/05	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
17/05	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-2	9	4	D

Gornik Zabrze

WWWWLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
15/09	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
12/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
06/09	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
03/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
30/08	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-3	13	1	L
16/08	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
08/08	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	3-1	3	8	W
25/07	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
23/05	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	5-0	6-2	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jagiellonia Bialystok win (40%). Probabilities: Jagiellonia Bialystok 40%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 35%.

How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok 1.68 · Gornik Zabrze 1.55), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.