Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 02/11, 20:30

Prediction: Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin

Team pages: Rakow Czestochowa · Pogon Szczecin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Rakow Czestochowa1.6

Pogon Szczecin1.45

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Rakow Czestochowa Draw Pogon Szczecin

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Rakow Czestochowa 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLWL

Pogon Szczecin 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Rakow Czestochowa 3–1–2 Pogon Szczecin (6 last)

Rakow Czestochowa2-0Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin2-0Rakow Czestochowa
Pogon Szczecin1-0Rakow Czestochowa
Rakow Czestochowa1-0Pogon Szczecin
Rakow Czestochowa2-1Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin1-1Rakow Czestochowa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rakow Czestochowa 1444 · Pogon Szczecin 1564

	Rakow Czestochowa	Draw	Pogon Szczecin
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pogon Szczecin (rating 1444 vs 1564).
H2H favours Rakow Czestochowa: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rakow Czestochowa	Pogon Szczecin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.4	1.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.8	1.9 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.36
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.82 ★
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.71

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:56 +27’	2.25	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +23’	2.19	3.85	2.94
08:12 +7’	2.20▲	3.84▼	2.94
10:18 +5’	2.34▲	3.79▼	2.74▼
13:40	2.33▼	3.80▲	2.75▲
16:39 +13’	2.36▲	3.81▲	2.71▼
23:00 +30’	2.36	3.82▲	2.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rakow Czestochowa 3–1–2 Pogon Szczecin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	2-0 HT 1-0	Pogon Szczecin
31/08/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Pogon Szczecin	2-0 HT 0-0	Rakow Czestochowa
19/04/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Pogon Szczecin	1-0 HT 1-0	Rakow Czestochowa
20/10/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	1-0 HT 0-0	Pogon Szczecin
11/05/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	2-1 HT 2-0	Pogon Szczecin
12/11/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Pogon Szczecin	1-1 HT 0-0	Rakow Czestochowa

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	11	9	1	1	29	10	28
2	Gornik Zabrze	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	7	3	1	19	9	24
4	Legia Warsaw	12	6	5	1	23	11	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	6	3	3	19	15	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	6	2	4	22	18	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	5	4	3	15	15	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	6	0	6	22	17	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	5	3	4	14	18	18
10	Jagiellonia Bialystok	11	5	0	6	14	17	15
11	Wisla Plock	11	4	2	5	10	16	14
12	Motor Lublin	12	3	4	5	17	21	13
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	3	3	6	14	19	12
14	Widzew Lodz	12	1	8	3	15	16	11
15	Slask Wroclaw	12	2	3	7	16	22	9
16	Wieczysta Krakow	12	2	2	8	16	23	8
17	Radomiak Radom	12	2	2	8	12	28	8
18	Rakow Czestochowa	12	2	0	10	16	28	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rakow Czestochowa	Pogon Szczecin
Wisla Krakow	1-2 L	2-2 D
Wieczysta Krakow	2-1 W	2-0 W
GKS Katowice	1-4 L	1-0 W
Korona Kielce	2-3 L	2-0 W
Zaglebie Lubin	2-3 L	0-0 D
Motor Lublin	2-1 W	3-1 W
Cracovia Krakow	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pogon Szczecin (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rakow Czestochowa

LLLLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-2	4	1	L
16/10	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
09/10	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
19/09	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
15/09	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-3	5	9	L
11/09	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
06/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
03/09	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
30/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	2-5	5	2	L
16/08	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-2	5	1	L

Pogon Szczecin

WWDDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	2-2	4-3	2	5	W
17/10	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
11/10	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
20/09	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
13/09	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
07/09	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
29/08	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
23/08	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	2-2	2-2	2	5	D
08/08	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	3-1	2	3	W
03/08	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rakow Czestochowa win (40%). Probabilities: Rakow Czestochowa 40%, draw 26%, Pogon Szczecin 34%.

How many goals are expected in Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Rakow Czestochowa 1.6 · Pogon Szczecin 1.45), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.