Football · France Ligue 2 · 14/08, 20:45
Prediction: Dijon vs Pau
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.34Total
Dijon1.85
Pau1.49
1X2
Dijon
Draw
Pau
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Dijon
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Pau
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dijon
0–1–3
Pau
(4 last)
- Dijon0-1Pau
- Pau0-0Dijon
- Dijon0-1Pau
- Pau2-0Dijon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dijon 1583 · Pau 1414
| Dijon | Draw | Pau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 43% | 30% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dijon (rating 1583 vs 1414).
- H2H favours Pau: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dijon | Pau | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 2.4 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dijon 0–1–3 Pau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/23 France Ligue 2 | Dijon | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Pau |
| 06/08/22 France Ligue 2 | Pau | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Dijon |
| 12/02/22 France Ligue 2 | Dijon | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Pau |
| 28/08/21 France Ligue 2 | Pau | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Dijon |
Standings · France Ligue 2
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Etienne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Dunkerque | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Rodez Aveyron | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Metz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Annecy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Red Star FC 93 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Dijon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Montpellier | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Clermont Foot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Nancy | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Reims | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Boulogne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Guingamp | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Nantes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Pau | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Grenoble | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Laval | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Sochaux | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dijon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Montpellier France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Nancy Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Sochaux Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 22/07 | Bourg-Peronnas Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Progres Niedercorn Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/07 | UNFP Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Le Puy Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 15/05 | US Orleans 45 France Ligue 3 |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Le Puy France Ligue 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/04 | Chateauroux France Ligue 3 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Pau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Annecy France Ligue 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Real Unión Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Real Sociedad B Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 21/07 | Espanyol Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Reims France Ligue 2 |
2-2 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Nancy France Ligue 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/04 | Annecy France Ligue 2 |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/04 | Guingamp France Ligue 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 10/04 | Amiens France Ligue 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/04 | Le Mans France Ligue 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dijon vs Pau?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dijon win (44%). Probabilities: Dijon 44%, draw 27%, Pau 29%.
How many goals are expected in Dijon vs Pau?
The model expects 3.34 goals (Dijon 1.85 · Pau 1.49), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Pau?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.