Football · France Ligue 2 · 14/08, 20:45
Prediction: Grenoble vs Metz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Grenoble1.05
Metz1.63
1X2
Grenoble
Draw
Metz
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Grenoble
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Metz
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Grenoble
1–2–3
Metz
(6 last)
- Metz3-0Grenoble
- Grenoble2-0Metz
- Metz1-0Grenoble
- Grenoble0-1Metz
- Metz1-1Grenoble
- Grenoble1-1Metz
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Grenoble 1467 · Metz 1530
| Grenoble | Draw | Metz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| Market | 23% | 28% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metz (rating 1467 vs 1530).
- H2H favours Metz: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Grenoble | Metz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.5 | 2.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 2.6 | 2.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Grenoble 1–2–3 Metz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/25 France Ligue 2 | Metz | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Grenoble |
| 18/10/24 France Ligue 2 | Grenoble | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Metz |
| 13/05/23 France Ligue 2 | Metz | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Grenoble |
| 30/12/22 France Ligue 2 | Grenoble | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Metz |
| 23/04/19 France Ligue 2 | Metz | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Grenoble |
| 01/12/18 France Ligue 2 | Grenoble | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Metz |
Standings · France Ligue 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Etienne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Dunkerque | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Rodez Aveyron | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Metz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Annecy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Red Star FC 93 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Dijon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Montpellier | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Clermont Foot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Nancy | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Reims | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Boulogne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Guingamp | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Nantes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Pau | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Grenoble | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Laval | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Sochaux | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Grenoble
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Dunkerque France Ligue 2 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Asf Andrezieux Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Clermont Foot Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Troyes Club Friendly List |
0-3 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Sochaux Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Bourg-Peronnas Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 09/05 | Troyes France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Dunkerque France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Le Mans France Ligue 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 17/04 | Montpellier France Ligue 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
Metz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Guingamp France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Fortuna Sittard Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/07 | Sochaux Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/07 | Seraing United Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Union Luxembourg Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Versailles 78 Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Nice France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
2-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Grenoble vs Metz?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Metz win (49%). Probabilities: Grenoble 23%, draw 28%, Metz 49%.
How many goals are expected in Grenoble vs Metz?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Grenoble 1.05 · Metz 1.63), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Metz?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.