Football · France Ligue 2 · 31/10, 20:00

Prediction: Guingamp vs St Etienne

Team pages: Guingamp · St Etienne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Guingamp1.22

St Etienne1.78

1X2

25% 26% 49%

Guingamp Draw St Etienne

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Guingamp 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWLLLW

St Etienne 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLDWWW

Head-to-head

Guingamp 3–1–2 St Etienne (6 last)

Guingamp1-2St Etienne
St Etienne2-3Guingamp
Guingamp2-2St Etienne
St Etienne1-3Guingamp
St Etienne3-2Guingamp
Guingamp2-1St Etienne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guingamp 1466 · St Etienne 1596

	Guingamp	Draw	St Etienne
Our model	25%	25%	50%
Market	24%	27%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Etienne (rating 1466 vs 1596).
H2H favours Guingamp: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guingamp	St Etienne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	2.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.1	2.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.30

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.93
X	3.50 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.70 ★
2	1.67 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.88

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:15 +3’	4.33	3.50	1.67
16:18 +2’	4.10▼	3.50	1.70▲
08:12 +1’	3.70▼	3.30▼	1.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:44 +122’	4.63	3.29	1.85
10:22 +9’	3.98▼	3.51▲	1.92▲
11:24 +8’	4.07▲	3.56▲	1.88▼
14:58 +14’	3.93▼	3.58▲	1.91▲
08:59 +18’	3.92▼	3.68▲	1.88▼
21:49 +54’	3.93▲	3.70▲	1.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guingamp 3–1–2 St Etienne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 France Ligue 2	Guingamp	1-2 HT 0-2	St Etienne
27/09/25 France Ligue 2	St Etienne	2-3 HT 1-1	Guingamp
04/05/24 France Ligue 2	Guingamp	2-2 HT 0-2	St Etienne
05/12/23 France Ligue 2	St Etienne	1-3 HT 1-1	Guingamp
06/05/23 France Ligue 2	St Etienne	3-2 HT 1-2	Guingamp
17/09/22 France Ligue 2	Guingamp	2-1 HT 1-0	St Etienne

Standings · France Ligue 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Etienne	10	8	1	1	23	8	25
2	Montpellier	10	6	3	1	13	6	21
3	Nancy	10	6	1	3	12	8	19
4	Reims	10	4	6	0	20	12	18
5	Pau	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
6	Red Star FC 93	10	5	2	3	13	12	17
7	Annecy	10	5	1	4	14	12	16
8	Metz	10	3	5	2	16	14	14
9	Dijon	10	3	3	4	17	18	12
10	Dunkerque	10	3	3	4	14	16	12
11	Guingamp	10	3	2	5	13	15	11
12	Sochaux	10	2	5	3	8	12	11
13	Boulogne	10	1	7	2	7	7	10
14	Rodez Aveyron	10	3	1	6	16	22	10
15	Nantes	10	2	2	6	11	17	8
16	Grenoble	10	2	2	6	9	17	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	0	7	3	9	14	7
18	Laval	10	1	3	6	13	21	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guingamp	St Etienne
Clermont Foot	2-0 W	3-1 W
Red Star FC 93	1-3 L	1-0 W
Nantes	3-3 D	1-0 W
Sochaux	0-1 L	3-0 W
Metz	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: St Etienne (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guingamp

LWLDDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Clermont Foot France Ligue 2	2-0	2-0	4	2	W
16/10	Pau France Ligue 2	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
09/10	Nancy France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
12/09	Annecy France Ligue 2	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
05/09	Reims France Ligue 2	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
29/08	Nantes France Ligue 2	2-1	3-3	1	2	D
21/08	Sochaux France Ligue 2	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
14/08	Boulogne France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
08/08	Metz France Ligue 2	0-0	1-2	3	3	L

St Etienne

WWWWWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Nantes France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
17/10	Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
10/10	Rodez Aveyron France Ligue 2	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
19/09	Metz France Ligue 2	0-0	2-2	6	6	D
12/09	Dunkerque France Ligue 2	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
05/09	Montpellier France Ligue 2	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
31/08	Dijon France Ligue 2	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
22/08	Grenoble France Ligue 2	3-0	4-0	6	4	W
14/08	Clermont Foot France Ligue 2	1-0	3-1	7	2	W
08/08	Sochaux France Ligue 2	3-0	3-0	1	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guingamp vs St Etienne?

According to our model, the most likely result is an St Etienne win (49%). Probabilities: Guingamp 25%, draw 26%, St Etienne 49%.

How many goals are expected in Guingamp vs St Etienne?

The model expects 3 goals (Guingamp 1.22 · St Etienne 1.78), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Guingamp vs St Etienne?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.