Football · France Ligue 2 · 30/10, 20:00

Prediction: Metz vs Pau

Team pages: Metz · Pau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Metz1.54

Pau1.3

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Metz Draw Pau

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Metz 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLDLWD

Pau 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLWWWW

Head-to-head

Metz 1–2–1 Pau (4 last)

Pau2-1Metz
Metz0-0Pau
Pau1-1Metz
Metz1-0Pau

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metz	Pau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.84

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 16:46

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.06 → 2.16▲	Pinn 2.16
X	3.45 → 3.85▲	Pinn 3.85
2	3.58 → 3.01▼	Pinn 3.01

See the full journey (4)

Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:45 +126’	2.06	3.45	3.58
11:06 +17’	2.10▲	3.81▲	3.14▼
11:24 +83’	2.12▲	3.82▲	3.09▼
15:00 +106’	2.16▲	3.85▲	3.01▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Metz 1–2–1 Pau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/25 France Ligue 2	Pau	2-1 HT 0-0	Metz
04/01/25 France Ligue 2	Metz	0-0 HT 0-0	Pau
08/04/23 France Ligue 2	Pau	1-1 HT 0-0	Metz
01/10/22 France Ligue 2	Metz	1-0 HT 1-0	Pau

Standings · France Ligue 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Etienne	10	8	1	1	23	8	25
2	Nancy	10	6	1	3	12	8	19
3	Montpellier	9	5	3	1	11	5	18
4	Reims	9	4	5	0	19	11	17
5	Pau	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
6	Red Star FC 93	9	5	2	2	12	10	17
7	Annecy	10	5	1	4	14	12	16
8	Metz	10	3	5	2	16	14	14
9	Dijon	10	3	3	4	17	18	12
10	Dunkerque	10	3	3	4	14	16	12
11	Guingamp	10	3	2	5	13	15	11
12	Sochaux	10	2	5	3	8	12	11
13	Rodez Aveyron	10	3	1	6	16	22	10
14	Boulogne	9	1	6	2	6	6	9
15	Nantes	10	2	2	6	11	17	8
16	Grenoble	10	2	2	6	9	17	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	0	7	3	9	14	7
18	Laval	10	1	3	6	13	21	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metz	Pau
Dunkerque	1-1 D	2-0 W
Sochaux	3-2 W	1-1 D
Dijon	2-4 L	1-0 W
Rodez Aveyron	4-1 W	2-2 D
Annecy	1-1 D	0-1 L
Laval	1-1 D	3-2 W
Grenoble	0-0 D	2-1 W
Guingamp	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pau (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metz

WDDDWLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Dunkerque France Ligue 2	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
17/10	Sochaux France Ligue 2	2-0	3-2	5	3	W
12/10	Dijon France Ligue 2	1-3	2-4	3	3	L
19/09	St Etienne France Ligue 2	0-0	2-2	3	6	D
14/09	Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
05/09	Rodez Aveyron France Ligue 2	3-1	4-1	7	2	W
29/08	Annecy France Ligue 2	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
22/08	Laval France Ligue 2	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
14/08	Grenoble France Ligue 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
08/08	Guingamp France Ligue 2	0-0	2-1	5	3	W

Pau

LWLDDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Grenoble France Ligue 2	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
16/10	Guingamp France Ligue 2	2-0	2-1	2	5	W
09/10	Laval France Ligue 2	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
18/09	Dunkerque France Ligue 2	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
11/09	Montpellier France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
04/09	Sochaux France Ligue 2	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
28/08	Rodez Aveyron France Ligue 2	2-1	2-2	3	4	D
21/08	Nancy France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
14/08	Dijon France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
08/08	Annecy France Ligue 2	0-1	0-1	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metz vs Pau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metz win (42%). Probabilities: Metz 42%, draw 27%, Pau 31%.

How many goals are expected in Metz vs Pau?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Metz 1.54 · Pau 1.3), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Metz vs Pau?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.