Football · France Ligue 2 · 20/11, 20:00

Prediction: Guingamp vs Rodez Aveyron

Team pages: Guingamp · Rodez Aveyron

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Guingamp1.65

Rodez Aveyron1.26

1X2

45% 27% 28%

Guingamp Draw Rodez Aveyron

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Guingamp 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLLWWL

Rodez Aveyron 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Guingamp 2–3–1 Rodez Aveyron (6 last)

Guingamp0-0Rodez Aveyron
Rodez Aveyron2-1Guingamp
Guingamp3-0Rodez Aveyron
Rodez Aveyron1-2Guingamp
Guingamp3-3Rodez Aveyron
Rodez Aveyron0-0Guingamp

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guingamp 1473 · Rodez Aveyron 1468

	Guingamp	Draw	Rodez Aveyron
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guingamp: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guingamp	Rodez Aveyron
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	2.9 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.30

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.03
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.41

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +1’	2.00	3.30	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +6’	2.03	3.74	3.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Guingamp 2–3–1 Rodez Aveyron

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 France Ligue 2	Guingamp	0-0 HT 0-0	Rodez Aveyron
12/12/25 France Ligue 2	Rodez Aveyron	2-1 HT 1-0	Guingamp
17/01/25 France Ligue 2	Guingamp	3-0 HT 1-0	Rodez Aveyron
13/09/24 France Ligue 2	Rodez Aveyron	1-2 HT 0-1	Guingamp
23/01/24 France Ligue 2	Guingamp	3-3 HT 3-3	Rodez Aveyron
11/11/23 France Ligue 2	Rodez Aveyron	0-0 HT 0-0	Guingamp

Standings · France Ligue 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Etienne	12	9	1	2	25	11	28
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	17	9	25
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	18	9	24
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	24	15	21
5	Pau	12	6	2	4	16	13	20
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	21	19	18
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	20	19	17
8	Red Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	14	17	17
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	14	18	16
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	17	17	15
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	16	18	14
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	10	8	13
13	Rodez Aveyron	12	4	1	7	17	23	13
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	14	18	12
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	11	15	11
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	8	15	11
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	13	22	11
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	14	23	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guingamp	Rodez Aveyron
Dunkerque	0-3 L	1-0 W
St Etienne	3-0 W	0-2 L
Clermont Foot	2-0 W	0-1 L
Pau	1-2 L	2-2 D
Nancy	0-1 L	3-4 L
Nantes	3-3 D	5-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Rodez Aveyron (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guingamp

LDDWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Dunkerque France Ligue 2	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
31/10	St Etienne France Ligue 2	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
23/10	Clermont Foot France Ligue 2	2-0	2-0	4	2	W
16/10	Pau France Ligue 2	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
09/10	Nancy France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
12/09	Annecy France Ligue 2	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
05/09	Reims France Ligue 2	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
29/08	Nantes France Ligue 2	2-1	3-3	1	2	D
21/08	Sochaux France Ligue 2	0-1	0-1	8	6	L

Rodez Aveyron

WDLLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Clermont Foot France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
30/10	Dunkerque France Ligue 2	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
24/10	Dijon France Ligue 2	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
19/10	Montpellier France Ligue 2	0-0	0-3	8	2	L
10/10	St Etienne France Ligue 2	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
18/09	Nancy France Ligue 2	2-1	3-4	4	3	L
11/09	Grenoble France Ligue 2	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
05/09	Metz France Ligue 2	1-3	1-4	7	2	L
28/08	Pau France Ligue 2	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
22/08	Nantes France Ligue 2	1-2	5-2	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guingamp vs Rodez Aveyron?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guingamp win (45%). Probabilities: Guingamp 45%, draw 27%, Rodez Aveyron 28%.

How many goals are expected in Guingamp vs Rodez Aveyron?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Guingamp 1.65 · Rodez Aveyron 1.26), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Rodez Aveyron?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.