Football · France Ligue 2 · 20/11, 20:00

Prediction: Red Star FC 93 vs Pau

Team pages: Red Star FC 93 · Pau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Red Star FC 931.58

Pau1.22

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Red Star FC 93 Draw Pau

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Red Star FC 93 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Pau 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Red Star FC 93 1–5 Pau (6 last)

Red Star FC 930-3Pau
Pau0-3Red Star FC 93
Red Star FC 931-3Pau
Pau4-1Red Star FC 93
Red Star FC 931-2Pau
Pau3-0Red Star FC 93

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Red Star FC 93 1492 · Pau 1553

	Red Star FC 93	Draw	Pau
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	44%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pau (rating 1492 vs 1553).
H2H favours Pau: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Red Star FC 93	Pau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.20

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.40
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.82 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:01 +17’	2.05	3.20	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +6’	2.01	3.40	3.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Red Star FC 93 1–0–5 Pau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/26 France Ligue 2	Red Star FC 93	0-3 HT 0-0	Pau
12/09/25 France Ligue 2	Pau	0-3 HT 0-2	Red Star FC 93
17/01/25 France Ligue 2	Red Star FC 93	1-3 HT 1-1	Pau
22/11/24 France Ligue 2	Pau	4-1 HT 1-1	Red Star FC 93
07/02/20 France Ligue 3	Red Star FC 93	1-2 HT 1-0	Pau
30/08/19 France Ligue 3	Pau	3-0 HT 2-0	Red Star FC 93

Standings · France Ligue 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Etienne	12	9	1	2	25	11	28
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	17	9	25
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	18	9	24
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	24	15	21
5	Pau	12	6	2	4	16	13	20
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	21	19	18
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	20	19	17
8	Red Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	14	17	17
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	14	18	16
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	17	17	15
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	16	18	14
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	10	8	13
13	Rodez Aveyron	12	4	1	7	17	23	13
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	14	18	12
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	11	15	11
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	8	15	11
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	13	22	11
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	14	23	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Red Star FC 93	Pau
Nancy	1-4 L	0-1 L
Montpellier	1-2 L	0-1 L
Guingamp	3-1 W	2-1 W
Metz	1-0 W	3-1 W
Laval	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pau (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Red Star FC 93

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Dijon France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
02/11	Nancy France Ligue 2	1-2	1-4	13	4	L
26/10	Montpellier France Ligue 2	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
17/10	St Etienne France Ligue 2	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
10/10	Clermont Foot France Ligue 2	1-1	3-2	3	4	W
19/09	Guingamp France Ligue 2	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
14/09	Metz France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
04/09	Laval France Ligue 2	2-0	2-1	6	7	W
29/08	Reims France Ligue 2	1-2	1-4	7	6	L
21/08	Boulogne France Ligue 2	1-0	1-1	3	8	D

Pau

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Nantes France Ligue 2	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
30/10	Metz France Ligue 2	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
23/10	Grenoble France Ligue 2	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
16/10	Guingamp France Ligue 2	2-0	2-1	2	5	W
09/10	Laval France Ligue 2	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
18/09	Dunkerque France Ligue 2	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
11/09	Montpellier France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
04/09	Sochaux France Ligue 2	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
28/08	Rodez Aveyron France Ligue 2	2-1	2-2	3	4	D
21/08	Nancy France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Red Star FC 93 vs Pau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Red Star FC 93 win (44%). Probabilities: Red Star FC 93 44%, draw 28%, Pau 28%.

How many goals are expected in Red Star FC 93 vs Pau?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Red Star FC 93 1.58 · Pau 1.22), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Red Star FC 93 vs Pau?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.