Football · France Ligue 2 · 21/11, 14:00

Prediction: Laval vs Montpellier

Team pages: Laval · Montpellier

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Laval1.21

Montpellier1.52

1X2

29% 28% 43%

Laval Draw Montpellier

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Laval 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLDLWL

Montpellier 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWWWWL

Head-to-head

Laval 0–3 Montpellier (3 last)

Montpellier2-0Laval
Laval0-1Montpellier
Laval0-2Montpellier

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Laval 1445 · Montpellier 1579

	Laval	Draw	Montpellier
Our model	29%	28%	43%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montpellier (rating 1445 vs 1579).
H2H favours Montpellier: 3-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Laval	Montpellier
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.24
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.75 ★
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:56 +23’	3.10	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +7’	3.21	3.73	2.11
14:53 +3’	3.24▲	3.75▲	2.09▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Laval 0–0–3 Montpellier

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 France Ligue 2	Montpellier	2-0 HT 0-0	Laval
27/09/25 France Ligue 2	Laval	0-1 HT 0-1	Montpellier
25/10/16 France League Cup	Laval	0-2 HT 0-1	Montpellier

Standings · France Ligue 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Etienne	12	9	1	2	25	11	28
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	17	9	25
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	18	9	24
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	24	15	21
5	Pau	12	6	2	4	16	13	20
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	21	19	18
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	20	19	17
8	Red Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	14	17	17
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	14	18	16
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	17	17	15
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	16	18	14
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	10	8	13
13	Rodez Aveyron	12	4	1	7	17	23	13
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	14	18	12
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	11	15	11
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	8	15	11
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	13	22	11
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	14	23	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Laval	Montpellier
St Etienne	0-2 L	1-3 L
Boulogne	1-0 W	0-0 D
Pau	2-3 L	1-0 W
Red Star FC 93	1-2 L	2-1 W
Grenoble	0-3 L	2-0 W
Metz	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Montpellier (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Laval

DLLLDLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	St Etienne France Ligue 2	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
30/10	Boulogne France Ligue 2	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
23/10	Nancy France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/10	Clermont Foot France Ligue 2	0-2	3-3	8	1	D
09/10	Pau France Ligue 2	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
18/09	Sochaux France Ligue 2	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
11/09	Dijon France Ligue 2	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
04/09	Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
28/08	Grenoble France Ligue 2	0-2	0-3	8	5	L
22/08	Metz France Ligue 2	0-0	1-1	7	5	D

Montpellier

WDLWDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Metz France Ligue 2	0-2	2-3	9	3	L
31/10	Annecy France Ligue 2	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
26/10	Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
19/10	Rodez Aveyron France Ligue 2	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
09/10	Grenoble France Ligue 2	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
18/09	Reims France Ligue 2	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
11/09	Pau France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
05/09	St Etienne France Ligue 2	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
28/08	Boulogne France Ligue 2	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
21/08	Dunkerque France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Laval vs Montpellier?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Montpellier win (43%). Probabilities: Laval 29%, draw 28%, Montpellier 43%.

How many goals are expected in Laval vs Montpellier?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Laval 1.21 · Montpellier 1.52), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Laval vs Montpellier?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.