Football · France Ligue 2 · 20/11, 20:00

Prediction: Nancy vs Dijon

Team pages: Nancy · Dijon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Nancy1.91

Dijon1.2

1X2

52% 25% 22%

Nancy Draw Dijon

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Nancy 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWWWW

Dijon 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Nancy 3–1–2 Dijon (6 last)

Nancy2-2Dijon
Dijon0-1Nancy
Nancy0-1Dijon
Dijon3-1Nancy
Nancy3-0Dijon
Dijon2-3Nancy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nancy 1563 · Dijon 1506

	Nancy	Draw	Dijon
Our model	53%	24%	23%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nancy (rating 1563 vs 1506).
H2H favours Nancy: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nancy	Dijon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.8	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.5	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.85
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.88 ★
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +5’	1.73	3.40	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +5’	1.85	3.88	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nancy 3–1–2 Dijon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Europe Friendlies	Nancy	2-2 HT 1-1	Dijon
21/02/25 France Ligue 3	Dijon	0-1 HT 0-0	Nancy
20/09/24 France Ligue 3	Nancy	0-1 HT 0-1	Dijon
26/02/24 France Ligue 3	Dijon	3-1 HT 0-0	Nancy
18/09/23 France Ligue 3	Nancy	3-0 HT 1-0	Dijon
07/05/22 France Ligue 2	Dijon	2-3 HT 1-0	Nancy

Standings · France Ligue 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Etienne	12	9	1	2	25	11	28
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	17	9	25
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	18	9	24
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	24	15	21
5	Pau	12	6	2	4	16	13	20
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	21	19	18
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	20	19	17
8	Red Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	14	17	17
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	14	18	16
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	17	17	15
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	16	18	14
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	10	8	13
13	Rodez Aveyron	12	4	1	7	17	23	13
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	14	18	12
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	11	15	11
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	8	15	11
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	13	22	11
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	14	23	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nancy	Dijon
Red Star FC 93	4-1 W	1-0 W
Laval	1-0 W	3-2 W
Annecy	2-1 W	2-1 W
Rodez Aveyron	4-3 W	1-2 L
Reims	1-2 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nancy (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nancy

WWLLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Sochaux France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
02/11	Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2	2-1	4-1	3	4	W
23/10	Laval France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
16/10	Annecy France Ligue 2	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
09/10	Guingamp France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
18/09	Rodez Aveyron France Ligue 2	1-2	4-3	5	3	W
11/09	Reims France Ligue 2	0-2	1-2	5	3	L
07/09	Nantes France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
28/08	Dunkerque France Ligue 2	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
21/08	Pau France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Dijon

DLDWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
30/10	Grenoble France Ligue 2	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
24/10	Rodez Aveyron France Ligue 2	1-1	1-2	10	3	L
16/10	Reims France Ligue 2	1-3	2-4	5	1	L
12/10	Metz France Ligue 2	3-1	4-2	3	3	W
18/09	Annecy France Ligue 2	0-1	2-1	1	3	W
11/09	Laval France Ligue 2	2-1	3-2	2	4	W
04/09	Boulogne France Ligue 2	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	St Etienne France Ligue 2	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
21/08	Clermont Foot France Ligue 2	0-0	1-1	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nancy vs Dijon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nancy win (52%). Probabilities: Nancy 52%, draw 25%, Dijon 22%.

How many goals are expected in Nancy vs Dijon?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Nancy 1.91 · Dijon 1.2), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nancy vs Dijon?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.