Football · France Ligue 2 · 20/11, 20:00
Prediction: Metz vs Boulogne
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.55Total
Metz1.45
Boulogne1.1
1X2
Metz
Draw
Boulogne
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Metz
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Boulogne
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Metz 1505 · Boulogne 1505
| Metz | Draw | Boulogne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Market | 44% | 29% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Metz | Boulogne | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 2.2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Standings · France Ligue 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Etienne | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Nancy | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Reims | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 15 | 21 |
| 5 | Pau | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | Dijon | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 18 |
| 7 | Metz | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| 8 | Red Star FC 93 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 17 |
| 9 | Annecy | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 16 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 15 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 14 |
| 12 | Boulogne | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 13 | Rodez Aveyron | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 13 |
| 14 | Nantes | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 12 |
| 15 | Clermont Foot | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 11 |
| 16 | Sochaux | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 11 |
| 17 | Grenoble | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
| 18 | Laval | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 23 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Metz | Boulogne |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Sochaux | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Dijon | 2-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Red Star FC 93 | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Annecy | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Laval | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 4 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Metz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Montpellier France Ligue 2 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 30/10 | Pau France Ligue 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 23/10 | Dunkerque France Ligue 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Sochaux France Ligue 2 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/10 | Dijon France Ligue 2 |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | St Etienne France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 14/09 | Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Rodez Aveyron France Ligue 2 |
3-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Annecy France Ligue 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Laval France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
Boulogne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Annecy France Ligue 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 30/10 | Laval France Ligue 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 26/10 | Reims France Ligue 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/10 | Grenoble France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 09/10 | Sochaux France Ligue 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Nantes France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 11/09 | Clermont Foot France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/09 | Dijon France Ligue 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 28/08 | Montpellier France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 21/08 | Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Metz vs Boulogne?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Metz win (44%). Probabilities: Metz 44%, draw 29%, Boulogne 27%.
How many goals are expected in Metz vs Boulogne?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Metz 1.45 · Boulogne 1.1), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Boulogne?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.