Football · North Macedonia First League · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: Tikves Kavadarci vs KF Bashkimi

Team pages: Tikves Kavadarci · KF Bashkimi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.23Total

Tikves Kavadarci3.12

KF Bashkimi1.12

1X2

81% 12% 7%

Tikves Kavadarci Draw KF Bashkimi

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Tikves Kavadarci 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDDWDDWD

KF Bashkimi 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDLWL

Head-to-head

Tikves Kavadarci 2–1–1 KF Bashkimi (4 last)

KF Bashkimi0-5Tikves Kavadarci
KF Bashkimi2-2Tikves Kavadarci
Tikves Kavadarci3-0KF Bashkimi
KF Bashkimi3-1Tikves Kavadarci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tikves Kavadarci 1590 · KF Bashkimi 1451

	Tikves Kavadarci	Draw	KF Bashkimi
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	85%	10%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 4.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tikves Kavadarci (rating 1590 vs 1451).
H2H favours Tikves Kavadarci: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tikves Kavadarci	KF Bashkimi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	0.9 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.9	2.4 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.10

X9.50

217.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.75)1.95

2 (+2.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.10 → 1.10	Bet365 1.10
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:22 +22’	1.10	9.50	17.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tikves Kavadarci 2–1–1 KF Bashkimi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 North Macedonia First League	KF Bashkimi	0-5 HT 0-2	Tikves Kavadarci
02/04/26 North Macedonia First League	KF Bashkimi	2-2 HT 0-0	Tikves Kavadarci
23/11/25 North Macedonia First League	Tikves Kavadarci	3-0 HT 3-0	KF Bashkimi
25/08/25 North Macedonia First League	KF Bashkimi	3-1 HT 1-0	Tikves Kavadarci

Standings · North Macedonia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shkendija Tetovo	10	7	2	1	24	10	23
2	FC Struga Trim & Lum	10	6	2	2	22	7	20
3	Vardar Skopje	10	6	2	2	17	9	20
4	Tikves Kavadarci	10	4	5	1	21	8	17
5	KF Shkendija Haracine	10	4	2	4	7	12	14
6	FK Sileks	10	3	4	3	17	11	13
7	Bregalnica Stip	10	3	1	6	11	17	10
8	KF Arsimi	10	2	4	4	8	21	10
9	KF Bashkimi	10	2	1	7	9	29	7
10	FK Skopje	10	0	3	7	5	17	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tikves Kavadarci	KF Bashkimi
KF Arsimi	1-1 D	0-1 L
Bregalnica Stip	3-0 W	0-3 L
FK Sileks	0-0 D	0-3 L
FC Struga Trim & Lum	2-2 D	2-1 W
Shkendija Tetovo	3-1 W	1-4 L
Vardar Skopje	1-1 D	3-3 D
FK Skopje	1-1 D	2-1 W
KF Shkendija Haracine	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Tikves Kavadarci (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tikves Kavadarci

WWLDDWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	KF Arsimi North Macedonia First League	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
10/10	Bregalnica Stip North Macedonia First League	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
18/09	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
11/09	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	1-2	2-2	6	3	D
04/09	Shkendija Tetovo North Macedonia First League	1-0	3-1	2	6	W
31/08	Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
21/08	FK Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
15/08	KF Shkendija Haracine North Macedonia First League	0-1	0-1	1	8	L
08/08	KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
24/07	KF Arsimi North Macedonia First League	4-1	5-1	2	4	W

KF Bashkimi

LLLLLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
12/10	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	1-1	2-1	0	6	W
18/09	Shkendija Tetovo North Macedonia First League	1-2	1-4	4	3	L
12/09	Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League	2-1	3-3	5	5	D
05/09	FK Skopje North Macedonia First League	1-0	2-1	0	10	W
30/08	KF Shkendija Haracine North Macedonia First League	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
21/08	Bregalnica Stip North Macedonia First League	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
14/08	KF Arsimi North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
08/08	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
26/07	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-3	0-6	0	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tikves Kavadarci vs KF Bashkimi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tikves Kavadarci win (81%). Probabilities: Tikves Kavadarci 81%, draw 12%, KF Bashkimi 7%.

How many goals are expected in Tikves Kavadarci vs KF Bashkimi?

The model expects 4.23 goals (Tikves Kavadarci 3.12 · KF Bashkimi 1.12), with a 56% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tikves Kavadarci vs KF Bashkimi?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.