Football · North Macedonia First League · 01/11, 14:30

Prediction: Bregalnica Stip vs Shkendija Tetovo

Team pages: Bregalnica Stip · Shkendija Tetovo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Bregalnica Stip1.02

Shkendija Tetovo1.99

1X2

18% 23% 59%

Bregalnica Stip Draw Shkendija Tetovo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Bregalnica Stip 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDWLLW

Shkendija Tetovo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDWDWD

Head-to-head

Bregalnica Stip 0–2–4 Shkendija Tetovo (6 last)

Shkendija Tetovo4-1Bregalnica Stip
Shkendija Tetovo4-1Bregalnica Stip
Bregalnica Stip2-2Shkendija Tetovo
Shkendija Tetovo2-0Bregalnica Stip
Bregalnica Stip0-1Shkendija Tetovo
Bregalnica Stip0-0Shkendija Tetovo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bregalnica Stip 1501 · Shkendija Tetovo 1548

	Bregalnica Stip	Draw	Shkendija Tetovo
Our model	18%	23%	59%
Market	18%	23%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shkendija Tetovo (rating 1501 vs 1548).
H2H favours Shkendija Tetovo: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bregalnica Stip	Shkendija Tetovo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	2.9 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.90

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 04:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
X	4.10 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	1.44 → 1.53▲	Pinn 1.60 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:50 +13’	5.75	4.10	1.44
21:52 +7’	8.00▲	4.33▲	1.33▼
02:58 +9’	6.00▼	4.20▼	1.42▲
03:58 +11’	5.00▼	3.90▼	1.53▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:02 +5’	4.06	4.26	1.56
14:00 +12’	4.83▲	3.63▼	1.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bregalnica Stip 0–2–4 Shkendija Tetovo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 North Macedonia First League	Shkendija Tetovo	4-1 HT 0-0	Bregalnica Stip
31/03/24 North Macedonia First League	Shkendija Tetovo	4-1 HT 2-0	Bregalnica Stip
25/11/23 North Macedonia First League	Bregalnica Stip	2-2 HT 0-1	Shkendija Tetovo
23/08/23 North Macedonia First League	Shkendija Tetovo	2-0 HT 0-0	Bregalnica Stip
22/04/23 North Macedonia First League	Bregalnica Stip	0-1 HT 0-0	Shkendija Tetovo
05/03/23 North Macedonia First League	Bregalnica Stip	0-0 HT 0-0	Shkendija Tetovo

Standings · North Macedonia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shkendija Tetovo	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
2	FC Struga Trim & Lum	11	7	2	2	26	7	23
3	Tikves Kavadarci	12	5	6	1	25	10	21
4	Vardar Skopje	11	6	3	2	17	9	21
5	FK Sileks	11	4	4	3	19	11	16
6	KF Shkendija Haracine	12	4	3	5	8	15	15
7	Bregalnica Stip	11	4	1	6	15	20	13
8	KF Arsimi	11	2	4	5	11	25	10
9	KF Bashkimi	11	2	1	8	10	32	7
10	FK Skopje	11	0	3	8	5	21	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bregalnica Stip	Shkendija Tetovo
KF Arsimi	4-3 W	2-2 D
Vardar Skopje	0-1 L	0-0 D
Tikves Kavadarci	0-3 L	1-3 L
FK Skopje	1-0 W	3-1 W
FK Sileks	2-2 D	2-0 W
KF Shkendija Haracine	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Struga Trim & Lum	0-4 L	2-1 W
KF Bashkimi	3-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shkendija Tetovo (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bregalnica Stip

WLWLLDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	KF Arsimi North Macedonia First League	2-1	4-3	8	7	W
17/10	Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-1	0-1	8	8	L
10/10	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
23/09	FK Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-0	9	9	W
13/09	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-1	2-2	1	6	D
04/09	KF Shkendija Haracine North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
28/08	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
21/08	KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League	1-0	3-0	5	6	W
16/08	Shkendija Tetovo North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-4	2	3	L
08/08	KF Arsimi North Macedonia First League	2-0	4-0	1	4	W

Shkendija Tetovo

WWWWLDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
18/10	FK Skopje North Macedonia First League	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
11/10	KF Shkendija Haracine North Macedonia First League	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/09	KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
11/09	KF Arsimi North Macedonia First League	2-1	2-2	12	6	D
04/09	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	0-1	1-3	5	6	L
28/08	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-0	2-0	2	5	W
24/08	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
16/08	Bregalnica Stip North Macedonia First League	0-0	4-1	7	3	W
09/08	Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-0	2-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bregalnica Stip vs Shkendija Tetovo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shkendija Tetovo win (59%). Probabilities: Bregalnica Stip 18%, draw 23%, Shkendija Tetovo 59%.

How many goals are expected in Bregalnica Stip vs Shkendija Tetovo?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Bregalnica Stip 1.02 · Shkendija Tetovo 1.99), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bregalnica Stip vs Shkendija Tetovo?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.